Predictions › United Kingdom › Middlesbrough vs Bristol City

ChampionshipSat 21 Nov, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Middlesbrough vs Bristol City prediction

Riverside Stadium

MiddlesbroughHome

2.17 : 0.99

expected goals

Bristol CityAway

64%Boro

21%Draw

16%Bristol City

Eagle safe pickMiddlesbrough or Draw

2/11

Quick answer

Our prediction for Middlesbrough vs Bristol City is Middlesbrough to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Middlesbrough or Draw at 2/11.

Prediction: Middlesbrough to win
Chance: 64%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Middlesbrough 2.2, Bristol City 1.0
Best bet: Middlesbrough or Draw at 2/11
Both teams to score: 56%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Middlesbrough or Draw

84% chanceFair price 2/112 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Middlesbrough to win and Over 2.5

43% chanceFair price 11/81 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Middlesbrough 64%, the draw 21% and Bristol City 16%. The bookmakers agree and make Middlesbrough the favourite at 4/11.
2
Recent form
Middlesbrough took 8 points from their last 5 games and Bristol City took 4 from 5. Middlesbrough come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Middlesbrough won 6 of their last 8 games at home. Bristol City won 3 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Middlesbrough score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.3. Bristol City score 1.1 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Middlesbrough games and 11 of Bristol City games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Middlesbrough won 0 and Bristol City won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Middlesbrough 1, Bristol City 1.
6
The safest bet
Middlesbrough or Draw has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Bororecent form+1%
Bristol Cityrecent form-3%

Boro form D L W W DBristol City form L L W D LHome edge in this league 21% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Middlesbrough vs Bristol City: Middlesbrough are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Middlesbrough host Bristol City in the Championship on Sat 21 Nov, 15:00 at Riverside Stadium. Our prediction for Middlesbrough vs Bristol City is Middlesbrough to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Middlesbrough or Draw at 2/11.

Middlesbrough form

Middlesbrough have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 0 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, D, newest first.

Bristol City form

Bristol City have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 33 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Middlesbrough won 0, Bristol City won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Middlesbrough 1, Bristol City 1.

Our call

We expect Middlesbrough to score about 2.2 goals and Bristol City about 1.0. That points to Middlesbrough to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Middlesbrough or Draw at 2/11. Our bold bet is Middlesbrough to win and Over 2.5 at 11/8.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Boro	Bristol City
Games played	20	20
Wins	10	6
Draws	5	4
Losses	5	10
Goals scored	35	23
Goals conceded	26	33
Scored per game	1.8	1.1
Conceded per game	1.3	1.6
Home record	6W 2D 0L	3W 0D 8L
Away record	4W 3D 5L	3W 4D 2L
Clean sheets	25%	15%
Both teams scored	60%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Middlesbrough to win	60%	4/6	4/11	-17.4%
A Draw	20%	4/1	4/1	-0.2%
Bristol City to win	15%	6/1	6/1	+2.9%
Over 3.5 goals	39%	6/4	5/4	-11.6%
Under 3.5 goals	54%	5/6	4/7	-15.7%
Middlesbrough -1.5	43%	11/8	10/11	-16.8%
Bristol City +1.5	50%	Evens	4/6	-14.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	83%	1/5
Over 2.5 goals	61%	8/13
Over 3.5 goals	39%	8/5
Both teams to score	56%	4/5
Middlesbrough or Draw	84%	2/11
Bristol City or Draw	36%	7/4
Middlesbrough to win and Over 2.5	45%	6/5
Bristol City to win and Over 2.5	10%	9/1
Middlesbrough clean sheet	37%	7/4
Bristol City clean sheet	11%	15/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-010.0%

2-19.9%

1-19.7%

1-08.7%

3-07.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Middlesbrough vs Bristol City?

Our prediction for Middlesbrough vs Bristol City is Middlesbrough to win, with a 64% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Middlesbrough or Draw at 2/11.

What is the score prediction for Middlesbrough vs Bristol City?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-1. We expect Middlesbrough to score 2.2 goals and Bristol City 1.0.

Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Bristol City?

Both teams to score has a 56% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Middlesbrough last 20 games and 11 of Bristol City last 20.

How are Middlesbrough playing?

How are Bristol City playing?

What happened when Middlesbrough and Bristol City last met?

It ended Middlesbrough 1, Bristol City 1. In the last 2 meetings Middlesbrough won 0 and Bristol City won 1.

What is the best bet for Middlesbrough vs Bristol City?

Middlesbrough or Draw at 2/11, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Boro against Bristol City. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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