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Predictions › United Kingdom › Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City
ChampionshipSat 17 Oct, 12:30 United Kingdom time

Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City prediction

Riverside Stadium

MiddlesbroughHome
1.94 : 0.87
expected goals
Cardiff CityAway
62%Boro
23%Draw
16%Cardiff
Eagle safe pickMiddlesbrough or Draw
2/9

Quick answer

Our prediction for Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City is Middlesbrough to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Middlesbrough or Draw at 2/9.

Prediction
Middlesbrough to win
Chance
62%
Most likely score
2-0
Expected goals
Middlesbrough 1.9, Cardiff City 0.9
Best bet
Middlesbrough or Draw at 2/9
Both teams to score
50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Middlesbrough or Draw
82% chanceFair price 2/92 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Middlesbrough to win and Over 2.5
37% chanceFair price 7/41 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Middlesbrough 62%, the draw 23% and Cardiff City 16%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Middlesbrough took 8 points from their last 5 games and Cardiff City took 4 from 5. Middlesbrough come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Middlesbrough won 6 of their last 9 games at home. Cardiff City won 2 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Middlesbrough score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.4. Cardiff City score 1.8 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Middlesbrough games and 10 of Cardiff City games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Middlesbrough or Draw has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Bororecent form+1%
  • Cardiffrecent form-3%
Boro form D D W L WCardiff form W L D L LHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City: Middlesbrough are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Middlesbrough host Cardiff City in the Championship on Sat 17 Oct, 12:30 at Riverside Stadium. Our prediction for Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City is Middlesbrough to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Middlesbrough or Draw at 2/9.

Middlesbrough form

Middlesbrough have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, L, W, newest first.

Cardiff City form

Cardiff City have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Middlesbrough to score about 1.9 goals and Cardiff City about 0.9. That points to Middlesbrough to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Middlesbrough or Draw at 2/9. Our bold bet is Middlesbrough to win and Over 2.5 at 7/4.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

BoroCardiff
Games played2020
Wins87
Draws77
Losses56
Goals scored3335
Goals conceded2727
Scored per game1.61.8
Conceded per game1.41.4
Home record6W 2D 1L5W 4D 2L
Away record2W 5D 4L2W 3D 4L
Clean sheets20%20%
Both teams scored65%65%
Over 2.5 goals65%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%2/7
Over 2.5 goals53%10/11
Over 3.5 goals31%9/4
Both teams to score50%Evens
Middlesbrough or Draw84%2/11
Cardiff City or Draw38%13/8
Middlesbrough to win and Over 2.539%6/4
Cardiff City to win and Over 2.59%11/1
Middlesbrough clean sheet42%7/5
Cardiff City clean sheet14%6/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-011.3%
1-011.1%
1-110.8%
2-19.9%
3-07.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City?

Our prediction for Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City is Middlesbrough to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Middlesbrough or Draw at 2/9.

What is the score prediction for Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 1-1. We expect Middlesbrough to score 1.9 goals and Cardiff City 0.9.

Will both teams score in Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Middlesbrough last 20 games and 13 of Cardiff City last 20.

How are Middlesbrough playing?

Middlesbrough have 8 wins, 7 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Cardiff City playing?

Cardiff City have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 35 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, L, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Middlesbrough vs Cardiff City?

Middlesbrough or Draw at 2/9, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Boro against Cardiff. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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