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Predictions › Colombia › Millonarios vs Alianza FC
Colombian Primera ASun 8 Nov, 20:30 Colombia time

Millonarios vs Alianza FC prediction

MillonariosHome
1.67 : 0.58
expected goals
Alianza FCAway
63%Millonarios
25%Draw
12%Alianza FC
Eagle safe pickMillonarios draw no bet
1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Millonarios vs Alianza FC is Millonarios to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Millonarios draw no bet at 1.19.

Prediction
Millonarios to win
Chance
63%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Millonarios 1.7, Alianza FC 0.6
Best bet
Millonarios draw no bet at 1.19
Both teams to score
36%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Millonarios draw no bet
84% chanceFair price 1.192 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Millonarios to win and Over 2.5
31% chanceFair price 3.211 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Millonarios 63%, the draw 25% and Alianza FC 12%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Millonarios took 7 points from their last 5 games and Alianza FC took 7 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Millonarios won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Alianza FC won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Millonarios score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.0. Alianza FC score 0.9 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Millonarios games and 11 of Alianza FC games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Millonarios won 0 and Alianza FC won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Alianza FC 2, Millonarios 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Millonarios draw no bet has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Alianza FCrest between games-5%
Millonarios form D W D L DAlianza FC form L W W D LHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Millonarios vs Alianza FC: Millonarios are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Millonarios host Alianza FC in the Colombian Primera A on Sun 8 Nov, 20:30. Our prediction for Millonarios vs Alianza FC is Millonarios to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Millonarios draw no bet at 1.19.

Millonarios form

Millonarios have 7 wins, 10 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, D, D, newest first.

Alianza FC form

Alianza FC have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Millonarios won 0, Alianza FC won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Alianza FC 2, Millonarios 2.

Our call

We expect Millonarios to score about 1.7 goals and Alianza FC about 0.6. That points to Millonarios to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Millonarios draw no bet at 1.19. Our bold bet is Millonarios to win and Over 2.5 at 3.21.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MillonariosAlianza FC
Games played2020
Wins75
Draws105
Losses310
Goals scored3019
Goals conceded2032
Scored per game1.50.9
Conceded per game1.01.6
Home record4W 4D 1L2W 4D 5L
Away record3W 6D 2L3W 1D 5L
Clean sheets30%25%
Both teams scored65%55%
Over 2.5 goals35%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals66%1.50
Over 2.5 goals39%2.55
Over 3.5 goals19%5.22
Both teams to score36%2.74
Millonarios or Draw88%1.14
Alianza FC or Draw37%2.73
Millonarios to win and Over 2.532%3.15
Alianza FC to win and Over 2.55%21.42
Millonarios clean sheet56%1.79
Alianza FC clean sheet19%5.32

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-016.9%
2-014.7%
0-011.1%
1-110.8%
2-18.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Millonarios vs Alianza FC?

Our prediction for Millonarios vs Alianza FC is Millonarios to win, with a 63% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Millonarios draw no bet at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Millonarios vs Alianza FC?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 0-0. We expect Millonarios to score 1.7 goals and Alianza FC 0.6.

Will both teams score in Millonarios vs Alianza FC?

Both teams to score has a 36% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Millonarios last 20 games and 11 of Alianza FC last 20.

How are Millonarios playing?

Millonarios have 7 wins, 10 draws and 3 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, D, D, newest first.

How are Alianza FC playing?

Alianza FC have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 19 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Millonarios and Alianza FC last met?

It ended Alianza FC 2, Millonarios 2. In the last 2 meetings Millonarios won 0 and Alianza FC won 1.

What is the best bet for Millonarios vs Alianza FC?

Millonarios draw no bet at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Millonarios against Alianza FC. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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