Predictions › Colombia › Millonarios vs Jaguares de Córdoba

Colombian Primera ASat 17 Oct, 23:05 Colombia time

Millonarios vs Jaguares de Córdoba prediction

Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

MillonariosHome

2.10 : 0.56

expected goals

Jaguares de CórdobaAway

73%Millonarios

19%Draw

8%Jaguares

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Millonarios vs Jaguares de Córdoba is Millonarios to win, with a 73% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction: Millonarios to win
Chance: 73%
Most likely score: 2-0
Expected goals: Millonarios 2.1, Jaguares de Córdoba 0.6
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score: 38%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

75% chanceFair price 1.332 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Millonarios to win and Over 2.5

40% chanceFair price 2.471 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Millonarios 73%, the draw 19% and Jaguares de Córdoba 8%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Millonarios took 9 points from their last 5 games and Jaguares de Córdoba took 2 from 5. Millonarios come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Millonarios won 3 of their last 8 games at home. Jaguares de Córdoba won 0 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Millonarios score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.1. Jaguares de Córdoba score 1.1 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Millonarios games and 11 of Jaguares de Córdoba games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Millonarios won 0 and Jaguares de Córdoba won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Jaguares de Córdoba 1, Millonarios 0.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Millonariosrecent form+1%
Jaguaresrecent form-4%

Millonarios form L D D W WJaguares form L L L D DHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Millonarios vs Jaguares de Córdoba: Millonarios are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Millonarios host Jaguares de Córdoba in the Colombian Primera A on Sat 17 Oct, 23:05 at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín. Our prediction for Millonarios vs Jaguares de Córdoba is Millonarios to win, with a 73% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Millonarios form

Millonarios have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 8. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Jaguares de Córdoba form

Jaguares de Córdoba have 3 wins, 6 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Millonarios won 0, Jaguares de Córdoba won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Jaguares de Córdoba 1, Millonarios 0.

Our call

We expect Millonarios to score about 2.1 goals and Jaguares de Córdoba about 0.6. That points to Millonarios to win, with 2-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Millonarios to win and Over 2.5 at 2.47.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Millonarios	Jaguares
Games played	20	20
Wins	7	3
Draws	9	6
Losses	4	11
Goals scored	30	22
Goals conceded	21	34
Scored per game	1.5	1.1
Conceded per game	1.1	1.7
Home record	3W 4D 1L	3W 4D 4L
Away record	4W 5D 3L	0W 2D 7L
Clean sheets	30%	15%
Both teams scored	60%	60%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	75%	1.33
Over 2.5 goals	50%	2.01
Over 3.5 goals	28%	3.60
Both teams to score	38%	2.62
Millonarios or Draw	92%	1.09
Jaguares de Córdoba or Draw	27%	3.69
Millonarios to win and Over 2.5	43%	2.31
Jaguares de Córdoba to win and Over 2.5	4%	27.63
Millonarios clean sheet	57%	1.75
Jaguares de Córdoba clean sheet	12%	8.19

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-015.4%

1-014.2%

3-010.8%

1-18.7%

2-18.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Millonarios vs Jaguares de Córdoba?

Our prediction for Millonarios vs Jaguares de Córdoba is Millonarios to win, with a 73% chance. The most likely score is 2-0. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Millonarios vs Jaguares de Córdoba?

2-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 3-0. We expect Millonarios to score 2.1 goals and Jaguares de Córdoba 0.6.

Will both teams score in Millonarios vs Jaguares de Córdoba?

Both teams to score has a 38% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Millonarios last 20 games and 12 of Jaguares de Córdoba last 20.

How are Millonarios playing?

How are Jaguares de Córdoba playing?

What happened when Millonarios and Jaguares de Córdoba last met?

It ended Jaguares de Córdoba 1, Millonarios 0. In the last 1 meeting Millonarios won 0 and Jaguares de Córdoba won 1.

What is the best bet for Millonarios vs Jaguares de Córdoba?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Millonarios against Jaguares. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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