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Predictions › Colombia › Millonarios vs Once Caldas
Colombian Primera AWed 14 Oct, 01:30 Colombia time

Millonarios vs Once Caldas prediction

Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín

MillonariosHome
1.36 : 0.71
expected goals
Once CaldasAway
52%Millonarios
30%Draw
19%Once Caldas
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.21

Quick answer

Our prediction for Millonarios vs Once Caldas is Millonarios to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.21.

Prediction
Millonarios to win
Chance
52%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Millonarios 1.4, Once Caldas 0.7
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.21
Both teams to score
38%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.212 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0
16% chanceFair price 6.071 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Millonarios 52%, the draw 30% and Once Caldas 19%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Millonarios took 9 points from their last 5 games and Once Caldas took 3 from 5. Millonarios come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Millonarios won 3 of their last 8 games at home. Once Caldas won 1 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Millonarios score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.1. Once Caldas score 1.2 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Millonarios games and 9 of Once Caldas games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Millonarios won 1 and Once Caldas won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Once Caldas 1, Millonarios 4.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Millonariosrecent form+1%
  • Once Caldasrecent form-1%
Millonarios form L D D W WOnce Caldas form L L W L WHome edge in this league 39% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Millonarios vs Once Caldas: Millonarios are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Millonarios host Once Caldas in the Colombian Primera A on Wed 14 Oct, 01:30 at Estadio Nemesio Camacho El Campín. Our prediction for Millonarios vs Once Caldas is Millonarios to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.21.

Millonarios form

Millonarios have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 8. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Once Caldas form

Once Caldas have 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 7 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Millonarios won 1, Once Caldas won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Once Caldas 1, Millonarios 4.

Our call

We expect Millonarios to score about 1.4 goals and Once Caldas about 0.7. That points to Millonarios to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.21. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 6.07.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MillonariosOnce Caldas
Games played2020
Wins75
Draws98
Losses47
Goals scored3024
Goals conceded2127
Scored per game1.51.2
Conceded per game1.11.4
Home record3W 4D 1L4W 1D 5L
Away record4W 5D 3L1W 7D 2L
Clean sheets30%15%
Both teams scored60%65%
Over 2.5 goals40%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals62%1.62
Over 2.5 goals34%2.93
Over 3.5 goals15%6.46
Both teams to score38%2.60
Millonarios or Draw81%1.23
Once Caldas or Draw48%2.07
Millonarios to win and Over 2.523%4.26
Once Caldas to win and Over 2.57%13.62
Millonarios clean sheet49%2.03
Once Caldas clean sheet26%3.88

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-016.5%
0-013.4%
1-112.9%
2-011.7%
2-18.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Millonarios vs Once Caldas?

Our prediction for Millonarios vs Once Caldas is Millonarios to win, with a 52% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.21.

What is the score prediction for Millonarios vs Once Caldas?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 1-1. We expect Millonarios to score 1.4 goals and Once Caldas 0.7.

Will both teams score in Millonarios vs Once Caldas?

Both teams to score has a 38% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Millonarios last 20 games and 13 of Once Caldas last 20.

How are Millonarios playing?

Millonarios have 7 wins, 9 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 8. Their last 5 results read D, D, W, W, D, newest first.

How are Once Caldas playing?

Once Caldas have 5 wins, 8 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 7 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Millonarios and Once Caldas last met?

It ended Once Caldas 1, Millonarios 4. In the last 2 meetings Millonarios won 1 and Once Caldas won 0.

What is the best bet for Millonarios vs Once Caldas?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.21, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Millonarios against Once Caldas. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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