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Predictions › United Kingdom › Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion
League OneSat 14 Nov, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion prediction

Stadium MK

Milton Keynes DonsHome
2.05 : 1.07
expected goals
Burton AlbionAway
59%MK Dons
22%Draw
18%Burton Albion
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
2/9

Quick answer

Our prediction for Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion is Milton Keynes Dons to win, with a 59% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

Prediction
Milton Keynes Dons to win
Chance
59%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Milton Keynes Dons 2.0, Burton Albion 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 2/9
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 2/92 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Milton Keynes Dons to win and Over 2.5
40% chanceFair price 6/41 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Milton Keynes Dons 59%, the draw 22% and Burton Albion 18%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Milton Keynes Dons took 12 points from their last 5 games and Burton Albion took 5 from 5. Milton Keynes Dons come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Milton Keynes Dons won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Burton Albion won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Milton Keynes Dons score 1.8 goals a game and let in 1.6. Burton Albion score 1.2 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Milton Keynes Dons games and 11 of Burton Albion games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • MK Donsrecent form+3%
  • Burton Albionrecent form-1%
MK Dons form D W W L WBurton Albion form L W D D LHome edge in this league 22% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion: Milton Keynes Dons are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Milton Keynes Dons host Burton Albion in the League One on Sat 14 Nov, 15:00 at Stadium MK. Our prediction for Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion is Milton Keynes Dons to win, with a 59% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

Milton Keynes Dons form

Milton Keynes Dons have 6 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 17 games, with 30 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

Burton Albion form

Burton Albion have 5 wins, 9 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Milton Keynes Dons to score about 2.0 goals and Burton Albion about 1.1. That points to Milton Keynes Dons to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9. Our bold bet is Milton Keynes Dons to win and Over 2.5 at 6/4.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MK DonsBurton Albion
Games played1720
Wins65
Draws79
Losses46
Goals scored3024
Goals conceded2827
Scored per game1.81.2
Conceded per game1.61.4
Home record4W 4D 1L3W 5D 2L
Away record2W 3D 3L2W 4D 4L
Clean sheets18%20%
Both teams scored76%65%
Over 2.5 goals59%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%2/9
Over 2.5 goals60%4/6
Over 3.5 goals38%13/8
Both teams to score58%8/11
Milton Keynes Dons or Draw82%2/9
Burton Albion or Draw41%6/4
Milton Keynes Dons to win and Over 2.542%7/5
Burton Albion to win and Over 2.512%15/2
Milton Keynes Dons clean sheet34%15/8
Burton Albion clean sheet13%7/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.3%
2-19.9%
2-09.3%
1-08.5%
3-16.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion?

Our prediction for Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion is Milton Keynes Dons to win, with a 59% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/9.

What is the score prediction for Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Milton Keynes Dons to score 2.0 goals and Burton Albion 1.1.

Will both teams score in Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Milton Keynes Dons last 17 games and 13 of Burton Albion last 20.

How are Milton Keynes Dons playing?

Milton Keynes Dons have 6 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 17 games, with 30 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, W, newest first.

How are Burton Albion playing?

Burton Albion have 5 wins, 9 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, D, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Milton Keynes Dons vs Burton Albion?

Over 1.5 goals at 2/9, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in MK Dons against Burton Albion. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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