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Predictions › United Kingdom › Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton Town
League OneSat 17 Oct, 12:30 United Kingdom time

Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton Town prediction

Stadium MK

Milton Keynes DonsHome
1.42 : 1.28
expected goals
Luton TownAway
40%MK Dons
27%Draw
33%Luton
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1/3

Quick answer

Our prediction for Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton Town is Milton Keynes Dons to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

Prediction
Milton Keynes Dons to win
Chance
40%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Milton Keynes Dons 1.4, Luton Town 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1/3
Both teams to score
55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1/32 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 13/21 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Milton Keynes Dons 40%, the draw 27% and Luton Town 33%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Milton Keynes Dons took 4 points from their last 5 games and Luton Town took 4 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Milton Keynes Dons won 1 of their last 5 games at home. Luton Town won 6 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Milton Keynes Dons score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.6. Luton Town score 1.9 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Milton Keynes Dons games and 13 of Luton Town games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • MK Donsrecent form+1%
MK Dons form D W D D DLuton form W W L L DHome edge in this league 21% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton Town: Milton Keynes Dons shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Milton Keynes Dons host Luton Town in the League One on Sat 17 Oct, 12:30 at Stadium MK. Our prediction for Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton Town is Milton Keynes Dons to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

Milton Keynes Dons form

Milton Keynes Dons have 2 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses in their last 11 games, with 16 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 0 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, D, newest first.

Luton Town form

Luton Town have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Milton Keynes Dons to score about 1.4 goals and Luton Town about 1.3. That points to Milton Keynes Dons to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 13/2.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MK DonsLuton
Games played1120
Wins211
Draws75
Losses24
Goals scored1638
Goals conceded1828
Scored per game1.51.9
Conceded per game1.61.4
Home record1W 4D 0L5W 3D 1L
Away record1W 3D 2L6W 2D 3L
Clean sheets18%20%
Both teams scored82%70%
Over 2.5 goals55%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals76%1/3
Over 2.5 goals51%Evens
Over 3.5 goals29%5/2
Both teams to score55%4/5
Milton Keynes Dons or Draw67%1/2
Luton Town or Draw60%4/6
Milton Keynes Dons to win and Over 2.524%3/1
Luton Town to win and Over 2.520%4/1
Milton Keynes Dons clean sheet28%13/5
Luton Town clean sheet24%3/1

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.9%
1-08.8%
2-18.7%
0-17.8%
1-27.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton Town?

Our prediction for Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton Town is Milton Keynes Dons to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1/3.

What is the score prediction for Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton Town?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.4 goals and Luton Town 1.3.

Will both teams score in Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton Town?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Milton Keynes Dons last 11 games and 14 of Luton Town last 20.

How are Milton Keynes Dons playing?

Milton Keynes Dons have 2 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses in their last 11 games, with 16 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 0 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, D, newest first.

How are Luton Town playing?

Luton Town have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Milton Keynes Dons vs Luton Town?

Over 1.5 goals at 1/3, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in MK Dons against Luton. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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