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Predictions › United Kingdom › Milton Keynes Dons vs Reading
League OneSat 10 Oct, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Milton Keynes Dons vs Reading prediction

Stadium MK

Milton Keynes DonsHome
1.07 : 1.08
expected goals
ReadingAway
34%MK Dons
31%Draw
35%Reading
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1/4

Quick answer

Our prediction for Milton Keynes Dons vs Reading is Reading to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/4.

Prediction
Reading to win
Chance
35%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Milton Keynes Dons 1.1, Reading 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1/4
Both teams to score
44%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1/42 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 6/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Milton Keynes Dons 34%, the draw 31% and Reading 35%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Milton Keynes Dons took 4 points from their last 5 games and Reading took 7 from 5. Reading come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Milton Keynes Dons won 1 of their last 5 games at home. Reading won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Milton Keynes Dons score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.6. Reading score 1.6 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Milton Keynes Dons games and 12 of Reading games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Nothing moved this one. Both teams are rested, form is level and there is no team news we can act on, so the number is what the results and the price say on their own.

MK Dons form W D D D LReading form D W L L WHome edge in this league 21% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Milton Keynes Dons vs Reading: Reading shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Milton Keynes Dons host Reading in the League One on Sat 10 Oct, 15:00 at Stadium MK. Our prediction for Milton Keynes Dons vs Reading is Reading to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/4.

Milton Keynes Dons form

Milton Keynes Dons have 2 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses in their last 11 games, with 16 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 0 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, D, newest first.

Reading form

Reading have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Milton Keynes Dons to score about 1.1 goals and Reading about 1.1. That points to Reading to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/4. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 6/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MK DonsReading
Games played1120
Wins26
Draws76
Losses28
Goals scored1632
Goals conceded1825
Scored per game1.51.6
Conceded per game1.61.3
Home record1W 4D 0L4W 1D 5L
Away record1W 3D 2L2W 5D 3L
Clean sheets18%25%
Both teams scored82%60%
Over 2.5 goals55%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals64%4/7
Over 2.5 goals37%7/4
Over 3.5 goals17%5/1
Both teams to score44%5/4
Milton Keynes Dons or Draw65%8/15
Reading or Draw66%8/15
Milton Keynes Dons to win and Over 2.516%11/2
Reading to win and Over 2.516%5/1
Milton Keynes Dons clean sheet34%2/1
Reading clean sheet34%15/8

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.3%
0-012.4%
0-111.7%
1-011.6%
1-27.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Milton Keynes Dons vs Reading?

Our prediction for Milton Keynes Dons vs Reading is Reading to win, with a 35% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/4.

What is the score prediction for Milton Keynes Dons vs Reading?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 0-1. We expect Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.1 goals and Reading 1.1.

Will both teams score in Milton Keynes Dons vs Reading?

Both teams to score has a 44% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Milton Keynes Dons last 11 games and 12 of Reading last 20.

How are Milton Keynes Dons playing?

Milton Keynes Dons have 2 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses in their last 11 games, with 16 goals scored and 18 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 0 losses from 5. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, D, newest first.

How are Reading playing?

Reading have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Milton Keynes Dons vs Reading?

Under 3.5 goals at 1/4, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in MK Dons against Reading. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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