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Predictions › United Kingdom › Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town
FA CupSat 7 Nov, 15:00 United Kingdom time

Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town prediction

Stadium MK

Milton Keynes DonsHome
1.86 : 1.38
expected goals
Swindon TownAway
48%MK Dons
24%Draw
28%Swindon
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
2/11

Quick answer

Our prediction for Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town is Milton Keynes Dons to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/11.

Prediction
Milton Keynes Dons to win
Chance
48%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Milton Keynes Dons 1.9, Swindon Town 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 2/11
Both teams to score
64%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
84% chanceFair price 2/112 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Milton Keynes Dons to win and Over 2.5
34% chanceFair price 2/11 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Milton Keynes Dons 48%, the draw 24% and Swindon Town 28%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Milton Keynes Dons took 9 points from their last 5 games and Swindon Town took 6 from 4. Milton Keynes Dons come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Milton Keynes Dons won 3 of their last 8 games at home. Swindon Town won 1 of their last 3 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Milton Keynes Dons score 1.5 goals a game and let in 1.7. Swindon Town score 2.5 and let in 1.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Milton Keynes Dons games and 4 of Swindon Town games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Swindonrecent form-1%
  • MK Donsrest between games-5%
  • Swindonrest between games-3%
MK Dons form D W L W LSwindon form D W D L LHome edge in this league 27% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town: Milton Keynes Dons are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Milton Keynes Dons host Swindon Town in the FA Cup on Sat 7 Nov, 15:00 at Stadium MK. Our prediction for Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town is Milton Keynes Dons to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/11.

Milton Keynes Dons form

Milton Keynes Dons have 5 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 16 games, with 24 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Swindon Town form

Swindon Town have 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in their last 4 games, with 10 goals scored and 7 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 0 draws and 2 losses from 3. Their last 4 results read L, L, W, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Milton Keynes Dons to score about 1.9 goals and Swindon Town about 1.4. That points to Milton Keynes Dons to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/11. Our bold bet is Milton Keynes Dons to win and Over 2.5 at 2/1.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 16 games in all competitions.

MK DonsSwindon
Games played164
Wins52
Draws70
Losses42
Goals scored2410
Goals conceded277
Scored per game1.52.5
Conceded per game1.71.8
Home record3W 4D 1L1W 0D 0L
Away record2W 3D 3L1W 0D 2L
Clean sheets19%25%
Both teams scored75%75%
Over 2.5 goals56%100%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals84%2/11
Over 2.5 goals63%4/7
Over 3.5 goals41%6/4
Both teams to score64%4/7
Milton Keynes Dons or Draw72%2/5
Swindon Town or Draw52%10/11
Milton Keynes Dons to win and Over 2.535%15/8
Swindon Town to win and Over 2.519%4/1
Milton Keynes Dons clean sheet25%3/1
Swindon Town clean sheet16%11/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.6%
2-19.4%
1-26.9%
2-06.8%
1-06.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town?

Our prediction for Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town is Milton Keynes Dons to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 2/11.

What is the score prediction for Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-2. We expect Milton Keynes Dons to score 1.9 goals and Swindon Town 1.4.

Will both teams score in Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town?

Both teams to score has a 64% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Milton Keynes Dons last 16 games and 3 of Swindon Town last 4.

How are Milton Keynes Dons playing?

Milton Keynes Dons have 5 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 16 games, with 24 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Swindon Town playing?

Swindon Town have 2 wins, 0 draws and 2 losses in their last 4 games, with 10 goals scored and 7 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 0 draws and 2 losses from 3. Their last 4 results read L, L, W, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Milton Keynes Dons vs Swindon Town?

Over 1.5 goals at 2/11, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in MK Dons against Swindon. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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