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Predictions › United States › Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies
MLBTue 22 Sept, 18:40 United States time

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies prediction

Citizens Bank Park

Milwaukee BrewersAway
4.6 : 4.8
projected runs
Philadelphia PhilliesHome
48%Brewers
52%Phillies
Eagle safe pickBrewers +2.5
-252

Quick answer

Our prediction for Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies is Philadelphia Phillies to win, with a 52% chance, but it is a close call. We project Milwaukee Brewers 4.6 and Philadelphia Phillies 4.8. Our best bet is Brewers +2.5 at -252.

Prediction
Philadelphia Phillies to win
Chance
52%
Projected score
Milwaukee Brewers 5, Philadelphia Phillies 5
Projected total
9.3 runs
Best bet
Brewers +2.5 at -252

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Brewers +2.5
72% chanceFair price -2521 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Philadelphia Phillies 52% and Milwaukee Brewers 48%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Philadelphia Phillies won 1 of their last 5 and Milwaukee Brewers won 5 of their last 5. Milwaukee Brewers come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Philadelphia Phillies won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Milwaukee Brewers won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Philadelphia Phillies score 4.3 runs a game and let in 3.8. Milwaukee Brewers score 6.5 and let in 4.8. Their recent games average 8.0 and 11.3 runs in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Philadelphia Phillies won 1 and Milwaukee Brewers won 2. The last one ended Milwaukee Brewers 4, Philadelphia Phillies 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Brewers +2.5 has a 72% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Philliesrest between games-5%
  • Brewersrest between games-5%
  • Philliesteam news-1%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies: Philadelphia Phillies shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Philadelphia Phillies host Milwaukee Brewers in the MLB on Tue 22 Sept, 18:40 at Citizens Bank Park. Our prediction for Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies is Philadelphia Phillies to win, with a 52% chance, but it is a close call. We project Milwaukee Brewers 4.6 and Philadelphia Phillies 4.8. Our best bet is Brewers +2.5 at -252.

Philadelphia Phillies form

Philadelphia Phillies have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 85 runs scored and 75 conceded. At home they have 5 wins and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Milwaukee Brewers form

Milwaukee Brewers have 13 wins and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 131 runs scored and 95 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Philadelphia Phillies won 1, Milwaukee Brewers won 2. Last time out it finished Milwaukee Brewers 4, Philadelphia Phillies 0.

Our call

We expect Milwaukee Brewers to score about 4.6 runs and Philadelphia Phillies about 4.8. That points to Philadelphia Phillies to win. Our safest bet is Brewers +2.5 at -252.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

PhilliesBrewers
Games played2020
Wins1113
Losses97
Runs scored85131
Runs conceded7595
Scored per game4.36.5
Conceded per game3.84.8
Home record5W 4L8W 2L
Away record6W 5L5W 5L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Phillies spreadCoversFair
Phillies -2.529%+244
Phillies -1.538%+165
Phillies -0.547%+113
Phillies +0.557%-130
Phillies +1.566%-191
Total runsOverUnder
7.566%34%
8.558%42%
9.548%52%
10.540%60%
11.531%69%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Phillies +3.5 wins if Phillies win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
MLB

Phillies Ace Jesús Luzardo Avoids Serious Shoulder Injury

Jesús Luzardo underwent an MRI that revealed no serious damage, though the Phillies will rest his left shoulder for a few days.

16 hours ago
MLB

Milwaukee Brewers Clinch Playoff Berth After Crushing Cincinnati Reds

The Milwaukee Brewers secured a postseason spot with a dominant 20-0 victory over the Cincinnati Reds on Friday.

12 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies?

Our prediction for Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies is Philadelphia Phillies to win, with a 52% chance, but it is a close call. We project Milwaukee Brewers 4.6 and Philadelphia Phillies 4.8. Our best bet is Brewers +2.5 at -252.

What is the projected score for Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies?

We project Milwaukee Brewers 4.6 and Philadelphia Phillies 4.8, about 9.3 runs in total.

How are Philadelphia Phillies playing?

Philadelphia Phillies have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 85 runs scored and 75 conceded. At home they have 5 wins and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Milwaukee Brewers playing?

Milwaukee Brewers have 13 wins and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 131 runs scored and 95 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers last met?

It ended Milwaukee Brewers 4, Philadelphia Phillies 0. In the last 3 meetings Philadelphia Phillies won 1 and Milwaukee Brewers won 2.

What is the best bet for Milwaukee Brewers vs Philadelphia Phillies?

Brewers +2.5 at -252, with a 72% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Phillies against Brewers. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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