Quick answer
Our prediction for Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat is Miami Heat to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project Minnesota Timberwolves 121.3 and Miami Heat 123.0. Our best bet is Heat +6.5 at -297.
- Prediction
- Miami Heat to win
- Chance
- 51%
- Projected score
- Minnesota Timberwolves 121, Miami Heat 123
- Projected total
- 244.3 points
- Best bet
- Heat +6.5 at -297
Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.
The eagle's three picks
✓ Eagle safe pick
Heat +6.5
75% chanceFair price -2971 unit
Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.
Why we think this
- 1
What our numbers sayThe model gives Miami Heat 51% and Minnesota Timberwolves 49%. The bookmakers agree and make Miami Heat the favourite at -125.
- 2
Recent formMiami Heat won 3 of their last 5 and Minnesota Timberwolves won 2 of their last 5. Miami Heat come in with the better run.
- 3
Home and awayMiami Heat won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Minnesota Timberwolves won 6 of their last 12 on the road.
- 4
ScoringMiami Heat score 123.0 points a game and let in 124.6. Minnesota Timberwolves score 113.6 and let in 116.5. Their recent games average 247.6 and 230.1 points in total, and the market line is 243.5.
- 5
Head to headIn the last 3 meetings, Miami Heat won 0 and Minnesota Timberwolves won 3. The last one ended Miami Heat 124, Minnesota Timberwolves 125.
- 6
The safest betHeat +6.5 has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.
Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.
What moved our number
Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.- Heatrest between games-5%
- Timberwolvesrest between games-5%
Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.
Match previewMinnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat: Miami Heat shade it
By the EagleEyeOdds desk
The big picture
Miami Heat host Minnesota Timberwolves in the NBA on Wed 21 Oct, 19:30 at Kaseya Center. Our prediction for Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat is Miami Heat to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project Minnesota Timberwolves 121.3 and Miami Heat 123.0. Our best bet is Heat +6.5 at -297.
Miami Heat form
Miami Heat have 8 wins and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 2459 points scored and 2492 conceded. At home they have 5 wins and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, W, newest first.
Minnesota Timberwolves form
Minnesota Timberwolves have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 2272 points scored and 2329 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 6 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, L, newest first.
Head to head
These two have met 3 times in our records. Miami Heat won 0, Minnesota Timberwolves won 3. Last time out it finished Miami Heat 124, Minnesota Timberwolves 125.
Our call
We expect Minnesota Timberwolves to score about 121.3 points and Miami Heat about 123.0. That points to Miami Heat to win. Our safest bet is Heat +6.5 at -297.
Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.
Team records
Last 20 games in all competitions.
Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.
Price check against DraftKings
Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.
Spread and total at every line
Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Heat +3.5 wins if Heat win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.
Questions people ask
Who will win Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat?
Our prediction for Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat is Miami Heat to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project Minnesota Timberwolves 121.3 and Miami Heat 123.0. Our best bet is Heat +6.5 at -297.
What is the projected score for Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat?
We project Minnesota Timberwolves 121.3 and Miami Heat 123.0, about 244.3 points in total.
How are Miami Heat playing?
Miami Heat have 8 wins and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 2459 points scored and 2492 conceded. At home they have 5 wins and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, W, newest first.
How are Minnesota Timberwolves playing?
Minnesota Timberwolves have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 2272 points scored and 2329 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins and 6 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, L, L, newest first.
What happened when Miami Heat and Minnesota Timberwolves last met?
It ended Miami Heat 124, Minnesota Timberwolves 125. In the last 3 meetings Miami Heat won 0 and Minnesota Timberwolves won 3.
What is the best bet for Minnesota Timberwolves vs Miami Heat?
Heat +6.5 at -297, with a 75% chance.
Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.
Important, please read before you bet
- These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Heat against Timberwolves. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
- We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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- Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
- No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
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