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Predictions › United States › Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo FC
MLSSat 10 Oct, 20:30 United States time

Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo FC prediction

Allianz Field

Minnesota United FCHome
1.04 : 1.29
expected goals
Houston Dynamo FCAway
29%Minnesota
29%Draw
41%Houston
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
-340

Quick answer

Our prediction for Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo FC is Houston Dynamo FC to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at -340.

Prediction
Houston Dynamo FC to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Minnesota United FC 1.0, Houston Dynamo FC 1.3
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at -340
Both teams to score
48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
77% chanceFair price -3402 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price +6231 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Minnesota United FC 29%, the draw 29% and Houston Dynamo FC 41%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Minnesota United FC took 0 points from their last 5 games and Houston Dynamo FC took 5 from 5. Houston Dynamo FC come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Minnesota United FC won 1 of their last 11 games at home. Houston Dynamo FC won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Minnesota United FC score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.8. Houston Dynamo FC score 1.1 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Minnesota United FC games and 6 of Houston Dynamo FC games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Minnesotarecent form-7%
  • Houstonrecent form-1%
Minnesota form L L L L LHouston form L D L W DHome edge in this league 27% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo FC: Houston Dynamo FC shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Minnesota United FC host Houston Dynamo FC in the MLS on Sat 10 Oct, 20:30 at Allianz Field. Our prediction for Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo FC is Houston Dynamo FC to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at -340.

Minnesota United FC form

Minnesota United FC have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 36 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Houston Dynamo FC form

Houston Dynamo FC have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 16 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Minnesota United FC to score about 1.0 goals and Houston Dynamo FC about 1.3. That points to Houston Dynamo FC to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at -340. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at +623.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MinnesotaHouston
Games played2020
Wins410
Draws65
Losses105
Goals scored3223
Goals conceded3616
Scored per game1.61.1
Conceded per game1.80.8
Home record1W 5D 5L6W 3D 1L
Away record3W 1D 5L4W 2D 4L
Clean sheets15%50%
Both teams scored75%30%
Over 2.5 goals60%30%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals68%-217
Over 2.5 goals41%+142
Over 3.5 goals21%+382
Both teams to score48%+110
Minnesota United FC or Draw59%-143
Houston Dynamo FC or Draw71%-241
Minnesota United FC to win and Over 2.515%+581
Houston Dynamo FC to win and Over 2.521%+366
Minnesota United FC clean sheet28%+263
Houston Dynamo FC clean sheet35%+184

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.8%
0-111.7%
0-010.5%
1-09.4%
1-28.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo FC?

Our prediction for Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo FC is Houston Dynamo FC to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at -340.

What is the score prediction for Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo FC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Minnesota United FC to score 1.0 goals and Houston Dynamo FC 1.3.

Will both teams score in Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo FC?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Minnesota United FC last 20 games and 6 of Houston Dynamo FC last 20.

How are Minnesota United FC playing?

Minnesota United FC have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 36 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 5 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Houston Dynamo FC playing?

Houston Dynamo FC have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 16 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo FC?

Under 3.5 goals at -340, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Minnesota against Houston. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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