Predictions › United States › Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes

MLSSat 7 Nov, 19:00 United States time

Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes prediction

Allianz Field

Minnesota United FCHome

1.36 : 1.46

expected goals

San Jose EarthquakesAway

34%Minnesota

27%Draw

39%San Jose

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

-360

Quick answer

Our prediction for Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes is San Jose Earthquakes to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -360.

Prediction: San Jose Earthquakes to win
Chance: 39%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Minnesota United FC 1.4, San Jose Earthquakes 1.5
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at -360
Both teams to score: 58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

78% chanceFair price -3602 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

13% chanceFair price +6951 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Minnesota United FC 34%, the draw 27% and San Jose Earthquakes 39%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Minnesota United FC took 9 points from their last 5 games and San Jose Earthquakes took 6 from 5. Minnesota United FC come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Minnesota United FC won 2 of their last 11 games at home. San Jose Earthquakes won 2 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
Minnesota United FC score 1.7 goals a game and let in 1.9. San Jose Earthquakes score 1.3 and let in 1.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Minnesota United FC games and 11 of San Jose Earthquakes games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Minnesota United FC won 1 and San Jose Earthquakes won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended San Jose Earthquakes 1, Minnesota United FC 5.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Minnesotarecent form+1%
San Joserecent form+1%
Minnesotarest between games-5%

Minnesota form D D W D DSan Jose form D D D D WHome edge in this league 27% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes: San Jose Earthquakes shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Minnesota United FC host San Jose Earthquakes in the MLS on Sat 7 Nov, 19:00 at Allianz Field. Our prediction for Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes is San Jose Earthquakes to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at -360.

Minnesota United FC form

Minnesota United FC have 3 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 38 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, D, D, newest first.

San Jose Earthquakes form

San Jose Earthquakes have 4 wins, 8 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 38 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Minnesota United FC won 1, San Jose Earthquakes won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished San Jose Earthquakes 1, Minnesota United FC 5.

Our call

We expect Minnesota United FC to score about 1.4 goals and San Jose Earthquakes about 1.5. That points to San Jose Earthquakes to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at -360. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at +695.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Minnesota	San Jose
Games played	20	20
Wins	3	4
Draws	8	8
Losses	9	8
Goals scored	34	26
Goals conceded	38	38
Scored per game	1.7	1.3
Conceded per game	1.9	1.9
Home record	2W 5D 4L	2W 4D 4L
Away record	1W 3D 5L	2W 4D 4L
Clean sheets	10%	10%
Both teams scored	85%	75%
Over 2.5 goals	70%	55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	78%	-350
Over 2.5 goals	53%	-114
Over 3.5 goals	31%	+222
Both teams to score	58%	-136
Minnesota United FC or Draw	61%	-157
San Jose Earthquakes or Draw	66%	-190
Minnesota United FC to win and Over 2.5	21%	+366
San Jose Earthquakes to win and Over 2.5	25%	+308
Minnesota United FC clean sheet	23%	+328
San Jose Earthquakes clean sheet	26%	+288

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.6%

1-28.6%

2-18.0%

0-18.0%

1-07.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?

What is the score prediction for Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Minnesota United FC to score 1.4 goals and San Jose Earthquakes 1.5.

Will both teams score in Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 17 of Minnesota United FC last 20 games and 15 of San Jose Earthquakes last 20.

How are Minnesota United FC playing?

How are San Jose Earthquakes playing?

What happened when Minnesota United FC and San Jose Earthquakes last met?

It ended San Jose Earthquakes 1, Minnesota United FC 5. In the last 1 meeting Minnesota United FC won 1 and San Jose Earthquakes won 0.

What is the best bet for Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes?

Over 1.5 goals at -360, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Minnesota against San Jose. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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