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Predictions › United States › Minnesota Wild vs Tampa Bay Lightning
NHLThu 8 Oct, 19:00 United States time

Minnesota Wild vs Tampa Bay Lightning prediction

Benchmark International Arena

Minnesota WildAway
3.1 : 3.3
projected goals
Tampa Bay LightningHome
49%Wild
51%Lightning
Eagle safe pickWild +2
-361

Quick answer

Our prediction for Minnesota Wild vs Tampa Bay Lightning is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project Minnesota Wild 3.1 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.3. Our best bet is Wild +2 at -361.

Prediction
Tampa Bay Lightning to win
Chance
51%
Projected score
Minnesota Wild 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Projected total
6.4 goals
Best bet
Wild +2 at -361

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Wild +2
78% chanceFair price -3612 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Wild to win
43% chanceFair price +1321 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Tampa Bay Lightning 51% and Minnesota Wild 49%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Tampa Bay Lightning won 2 of their last 5 and Minnesota Wild won 1 of their last 5. Tampa Bay Lightning come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Tampa Bay Lightning won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Minnesota Wild won 2 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Tampa Bay Lightning score 2.4 goals a game and let in 2.8. Minnesota Wild score 3.2 and let in 3.3. Their recent games average 5.2 and 6.5 goals in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Tampa Bay Lightning won 1 and Minnesota Wild won 1. The last one ended Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Minnesota Wild 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Wild +2 has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Lightningrest between games-2%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Minnesota Wild vs Tampa Bay Lightning: Tampa Bay Lightning shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Tampa Bay Lightning host Minnesota Wild in the NHL on Thu 8 Oct, 19:00 at Benchmark International Arena. Our prediction for Minnesota Wild vs Tampa Bay Lightning is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project Minnesota Wild 3.1 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.3. Our best bet is Wild +2 at -361.

Tampa Bay Lightning form

Tampa Bay Lightning have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 48 goals scored and 55 conceded. At home they have 5 wins and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Minnesota Wild form

Minnesota Wild have 8 wins and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 64 goals scored and 66 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins and 9 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Tampa Bay Lightning won 1, Minnesota Wild won 1. Last time out it finished Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Minnesota Wild 3.

Our call

We expect Minnesota Wild to score about 3.1 goals and Tampa Bay Lightning about 3.3. That points to Tampa Bay Lightning to win. Our safest bet is Wild +2 at -361. Our bold bet is Wild to win at +132.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

LightningWild
Games played2020
Wins98
Losses1112
Goals scored4864
Goals conceded5566
Scored per game2.43.2
Conceded per game2.83.3
Home record5W 6L6W 3L
Away record4W 5L2W 9L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Lightning spreadCoversFair
Lightning -1.529%+241
Lightning -0.545%+123
Lightning +0.561%-159
Total goalsOverUnder
5.566%34%
6.549%51%
7.533%67%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Lightning +3.5 wins if Lightning win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Latest news on these teams

All news
NHL

Quinn Hughes Stays Calm Over Contract Talks at Minnesota Camp

Quinn Hughes is in no rush to sign an extension with Minnesota as training camp begins.

18 Sept 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Minnesota Wild vs Tampa Bay Lightning?

Our prediction for Minnesota Wild vs Tampa Bay Lightning is Tampa Bay Lightning to win, with a 51% chance, but it is a close call. We project Minnesota Wild 3.1 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.3. Our best bet is Wild +2 at -361.

What is the projected score for Minnesota Wild vs Tampa Bay Lightning?

We project Minnesota Wild 3.1 and Tampa Bay Lightning 3.3, about 6.4 goals in total.

How are Tampa Bay Lightning playing?

Tampa Bay Lightning have 9 wins and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 48 goals scored and 55 conceded. At home they have 5 wins and 6 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Minnesota Wild playing?

Minnesota Wild have 8 wins and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 64 goals scored and 66 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins and 9 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Tampa Bay Lightning and Minnesota Wild last met?

It ended Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Minnesota Wild 3. In the last 2 meetings Tampa Bay Lightning won 1 and Minnesota Wild won 1.

What is the best bet for Minnesota Wild vs Tampa Bay Lightning?

Wild +2 at -361, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Lightning against Wild. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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