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Predictions › Brazil › Mirassol vs Atlético-MG
BrasileiraoSat 14 Nov, 21:30 Brazil time

Mirassol vs Atlético-MG prediction

Estadio Municipal José Maria de Campos Maia

MirassolHome
1.41 : 1.12
expected goals
Atlético-MGAway
43%Mirassol
28%Draw
29%Atlético-MG
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Mirassol vs Atlético-MG is Mirassol to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Mirassol to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Mirassol 1.4, Atlético-MG 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.501 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Mirassol 43%, the draw 28% and Atlético-MG 29%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Mirassol took 7 points from their last 5 games and Atlético-MG took 7 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Mirassol won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Atlético-MG won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Mirassol score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.3. Atlético-MG score 1.5 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 7 of Mirassol games and 10 of Atlético-MG games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Mirassol won 0 and Atlético-MG won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Atlético-MG 3, Mirassol 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Mirassolrecent form-1%
  • Atlético-MGrecent form-4%
  • Mirassolrest between games-5%
Mirassol form D L D W LAtlético-MG form L L L L WHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Mirassol vs Atlético-MG: Mirassol shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Mirassol host Atlético-MG in the Brasileirao on Sat 14 Nov, 21:30 at Estadio Municipal José Maria de Campos Maia. Our prediction for Mirassol vs Atlético-MG is Mirassol to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Mirassol form

Mirassol have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, L, newest first.

Atlético-MG form

Atlético-MG have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Mirassol won 0, Atlético-MG won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Atlético-MG 3, Mirassol 1.

Our call

We expect Mirassol to score about 1.4 goals and Atlético-MG about 1.1. That points to Mirassol to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.50.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MirassolAtlético-MG
Games played2020
Wins610
Draws86
Losses64
Goals scored2230
Goals conceded2620
Scored per game1.11.5
Conceded per game1.31.0
Home record4W 4D 1L7W 3D 1L
Away record2W 4D 5L3W 3D 3L
Clean sheets15%25%
Both teams scored65%60%
Over 2.5 goals35%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals73%1.38
Over 2.5 goals46%2.16
Over 3.5 goals25%4.03
Both teams to score52%1.94
Mirassol or Draw71%1.41
Atlético-MG or Draw57%1.75
Mirassol to win and Over 2.524%4.08
Atlético-MG to win and Over 2.516%6.28
Mirassol clean sheet33%3.06
Atlético-MG clean sheet24%4.10

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.3%
1-010.5%
2-18.9%
0-08.7%
0-18.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Mirassol vs Atlético-MG?

Our prediction for Mirassol vs Atlético-MG is Mirassol to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Mirassol vs Atlético-MG?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Mirassol to score 1.4 goals and Atlético-MG 1.1.

Will both teams score in Mirassol vs Atlético-MG?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Mirassol last 20 games and 12 of Atlético-MG last 20.

How are Mirassol playing?

Mirassol have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 26 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, W, L, newest first.

How are Atlético-MG playing?

Atlético-MG have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 20 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Mirassol and Atlético-MG last met?

It ended Atlético-MG 3, Mirassol 1. In the last 2 meetings Mirassol won 0 and Atlético-MG won 2.

What is the best bet for Mirassol vs Atlético-MG?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Mirassol against Atlético-MG. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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