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Predictions › Brazil › Mirassol vs São Paulo
BrasileiraoSat 24 Oct, 19:30 Brazil time

Mirassol vs São Paulo prediction

Estadio Municipal José Maria de Campos Maia

MirassolHome
1.70 : 0.83
expected goals
São PauloAway
57%Mirassol
25%Draw
17%São Paulo
Eagle safe pickMirassol or Draw
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Mirassol vs São Paulo is Mirassol to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Mirassol or Draw at 1.24.

Prediction
Mirassol to win
Chance
57%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Mirassol 1.7, São Paulo 0.8
Best bet
Mirassol or Draw at 1.24
Both teams to score
47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Mirassol or Draw
81% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Mirassol to win and Over 2.5
31% chanceFair price 3.201 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Mirassol 57%, the draw 25% and São Paulo 17%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Mirassol took 8 points from their last 5 games and São Paulo took 6 from 5. Mirassol come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Mirassol won 4 of their last 8 games at home. São Paulo won 0 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Mirassol score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.4. São Paulo score 1.0 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Mirassol games and 9 of São Paulo games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Mirassol won 1 and São Paulo won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended São Paulo 1, Mirassol 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Mirassol or Draw has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Mirassolrecent form+3%
  • São Paulorecent form-1%
Mirassol form D D W D WSão Paulo form D L L W DHome edge in this league 40% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Mirassol vs São Paulo: Mirassol are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Mirassol host São Paulo in the Brasileirao on Sat 24 Oct, 19:30 at Estadio Municipal José Maria de Campos Maia. Our prediction for Mirassol vs São Paulo is Mirassol to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Mirassol or Draw at 1.24.

Mirassol form

Mirassol have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 8. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, D, W, newest first.

São Paulo form

São Paulo have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 9 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Mirassol won 1, São Paulo won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished São Paulo 1, Mirassol 0.

Our call

We expect Mirassol to score about 1.7 goals and São Paulo about 0.8. That points to Mirassol to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Mirassol or Draw at 1.24. Our bold bet is Mirassol to win and Over 2.5 at 3.20.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MirassolSão Paulo
Games played2020
Wins65
Draws74
Losses711
Goals scored2120
Goals conceded2728
Scored per game1.11.0
Conceded per game1.41.4
Home record4W 3D 1L5W 3D 2L
Away record2W 4D 6L0W 1D 9L
Clean sheets15%15%
Both teams scored65%60%
Over 2.5 goals40%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals72%1.38
Over 2.5 goals46%2.16
Over 3.5 goals25%4.03
Both teams to score47%2.14
Mirassol or Draw83%1.21
São Paulo or Draw43%2.34
Mirassol to win and Over 2.533%3.04
São Paulo to win and Over 2.59%11.44
Mirassol clean sheet44%2.29
São Paulo clean sheet18%5.46

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-012.9%
1-111.9%
2-011.5%
2-19.5%
0-08.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Mirassol vs São Paulo?

Our prediction for Mirassol vs São Paulo is Mirassol to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Mirassol or Draw at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Mirassol vs São Paulo?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 2-0. We expect Mirassol to score 1.7 goals and São Paulo 0.8.

Will both teams score in Mirassol vs São Paulo?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Mirassol last 20 games and 12 of São Paulo last 20.

How are Mirassol playing?

Mirassol have 6 wins, 7 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 27 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 8. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, D, W, newest first.

How are São Paulo playing?

São Paulo have 5 wins, 4 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 1 draw and 9 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Mirassol and São Paulo last met?

It ended São Paulo 1, Mirassol 0. In the last 2 meetings Mirassol won 1 and São Paulo won 1.

What is the best bet for Mirassol vs São Paulo?

Mirassol or Draw at 1.24, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Mirassol against São Paulo. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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