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Predictions › United States › Missouri State Bears vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
College FootballThu 8 Oct, 19:00 United States time

Missouri State Bears vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers prediction

Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium

Missouri State BearsAway
18.0 : 35.5
projected points
Western Kentucky HilltoppersHome
16%Missouri St
84%Western KY
Eagle safe pickWestern KY to win
-538

Quick answer

Our prediction for Missouri State Bears vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers is Western Kentucky Hilltoppers to win, with a 84% chance. We project Missouri State Bears 18.0 and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 35.5. Our best bet is Western KY to win at -538.

Prediction
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers to win
Chance
84%
Projected score
Missouri State Bears 18, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 35
Projected total
53.5 points
Best bet
Western KY to win at -538

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Western KY to win
84% chanceFair price -5382 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 84% and Missouri State Bears 16%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Western Kentucky Hilltoppers won 2 of their last 5 and Missouri State Bears won 1 of their last 5. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Western Kentucky Hilltoppers won 4 of their last 5 games at home. Missouri State Bears won 3 of their last 7 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Western Kentucky Hilltoppers score 25.2 points a game and let in 27.6. Missouri State Bears score 26.3 and let in 27.3. Their recent games average 52.8 and 53.6 points in total.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers won 1 and Missouri State Bears won 0. The last one ended Missouri State Bears 22, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 27.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Western KY to win has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Western KYrest between games-2%
  • Missouri Strest between games-2%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Missouri State Bears vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers host Missouri State Bears in the College Football on Thu 8 Oct, 19:00 at Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium. Our prediction for Missouri State Bears vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers is Western Kentucky Hilltoppers to win, with a 84% chance. We project Missouri State Bears 18.0 and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 35.5. Our best bet is Western KY to win at -538.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers form

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have 8 wins and 6 losses in their last 14 games, with 353 points scored and 386 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 1 loss from 5. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Missouri State Bears form

Missouri State Bears have 7 wins and 8 losses in their last 15 games, with 395 points scored and 409 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 4 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Western Kentucky Hilltoppers won 1, Missouri State Bears won 0. Last time out it finished Missouri State Bears 22, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 27.

Our call

We expect Missouri State Bears to score about 18.0 points and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers about 35.5. That points to Western Kentucky Hilltoppers to win. Our safest bet is Western KY to win at -538.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 15 games in all competitions.

Western KYMissouri St
Games played1415
Wins87
Losses68
Points scored353395
Points conceded386409
Scored per game25.226.3
Conceded per game27.627.3
Home record4W 1L4W 4L
Away record4W 5L3W 4L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Spread and total at every line

Western KY spreadCoversFair
Western KY -24.533%+202
Western KY -20.543%+135
Western KY -17.550%+100
Western KY -14.557%-135
Western KY -10.567%-202
Total pointsOverUnder
46.567%33%
50.557%43%
53.550%50%
56.542%58%
60.533%67%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Western KY +3.5 wins if Western KY win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Missouri State Bears vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers?

Our prediction for Missouri State Bears vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers is Western Kentucky Hilltoppers to win, with a 84% chance. We project Missouri State Bears 18.0 and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 35.5. Our best bet is Western KY to win at -538.

What is the projected score for Missouri State Bears vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers?

We project Missouri State Bears 18.0 and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 35.5, about 53.5 points in total.

How are Western Kentucky Hilltoppers playing?

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have 8 wins and 6 losses in their last 14 games, with 353 points scored and 386 conceded. At home they have 4 wins and 1 loss from 5. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Missouri State Bears playing?

Missouri State Bears have 7 wins and 8 losses in their last 15 games, with 395 points scored and 409 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins and 4 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Western Kentucky Hilltoppers and Missouri State Bears last met?

It ended Missouri State Bears 22, Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 27. In the last 1 meeting Western Kentucky Hilltoppers won 1 and Missouri State Bears won 0.

What is the best bet for Missouri State Bears vs Western Kentucky Hilltoppers?

Western KY to win at -538, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Western KY against Missouri St. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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