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Predictions › Italy › Modena vs Cesena
Serie BSat 24 Oct, 13:00 Italy time

Modena vs Cesena prediction

Alberto Braglia

ModenaHome
1.41 : 0.83
expected goals
CesenaAway
50%Modena
29%Draw
21%Cesena
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Modena vs Cesena is Modena to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

Prediction
Modena to win
Chance
50%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Modena 1.4, Cesena 0.8
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.26
Both teams to score
43%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.262 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0
14% chanceFair price 6.981 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Modena 50%, the draw 29% and Cesena 21%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Modena took 10 points from their last 5 games and Cesena took 6 from 5. Modena come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Modena won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Cesena won 1 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Modena score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.2. Cesena score 1.0 and let in 1.7. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Modena games and 9 of Cesena games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Modena won 0 and Cesena won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Modena 0, Cesena 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Modenarecent form+1%
  • Cesenarecent form+1%
  • Modenarest between games-2%
Modena form D W D L WCesena form D D D D WHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Modena vs Cesena: Modena are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Modena host Cesena in the Serie B on Sat 24 Oct, 13:00 at Alberto Braglia. Our prediction for Modena vs Cesena is Modena to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

Modena form

Modena have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, W, newest first.

Cesena form

Cesena have 2 wins, 10 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Modena won 0, Cesena won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Modena 0, Cesena 0.

Our call

We expect Modena to score about 1.4 goals and Cesena about 0.8. That points to Modena to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 6.98.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ModenaCesena
Games played2020
Wins82
Draws410
Losses88
Goals scored2720
Goals conceded2434
Scored per game1.41.0
Conceded per game1.21.7
Home record5W 1D 4L1W 6D 4L
Away record3W 3D 4L1W 4D 4L
Clean sheets15%15%
Both teams scored65%60%
Over 2.5 goals65%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals66%1.51
Over 2.5 goals39%2.59
Over 3.5 goals19%5.33
Both teams to score43%2.31
Modena or Draw79%1.27
Cesena or Draw50%2.00
Modena to win and Over 2.525%4.00
Cesena to win and Over 2.510%10.50
Modena clean sheet44%2.28
Cesena clean sheet24%4.09

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-014.3%
1-113.2%
0-011.4%
2-010.6%
2-18.8%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Modena vs Cesena?

Our prediction for Modena vs Cesena is Modena to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Modena vs Cesena?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-0. We expect Modena to score 1.4 goals and Cesena 0.8.

Will both teams score in Modena vs Cesena?

Both teams to score has a 43% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Modena last 20 games and 12 of Cesena last 20.

How are Modena playing?

Modena have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 24 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, L, W, newest first.

How are Cesena playing?

Cesena have 2 wins, 10 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 34 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, D, D, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Modena and Cesena last met?

It ended Modena 0, Cesena 0. In the last 2 meetings Modena won 0 and Cesena won 1.

What is the best bet for Modena vs Cesena?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.26, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Modena against Cesena. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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