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Predictions › Italy › Modena vs Empoli
Serie BSun 20 Sept, 17:30 Italy time

Modena vs Empoli prediction

Alberto Braglia

ModenaHome
1.32 : 0.87
expected goals
EmpoliAway
46%Modena
30%Draw
24%Empoli
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.20

Quick answer

Our prediction for Modena vs Empoli is Modena to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20.

Prediction
Modena to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Modena 1.3, Empoli 0.9
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.20
Both teams to score
43%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
84% chanceFair price 1.202 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0
14% chanceFair price 7.141 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Modena 46%, the draw 30% and Empoli 24%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Modena took 7 points from their last 5 games and Empoli took 7 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Modena won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Empoli won 1 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Modena score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.1. Empoli score 1.2 and let in 1.5. Over 2.5 goals landed in 11 of Modena games and 9 of Empoli games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Modena won 1 and Empoli won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Empoli 0, Modena 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Empolirecent form-1%
  • Modenarest between games-5%
  • Empolirest between games-5%
Modena form D L W W LEmpoli form L W L W LHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Modena vs Empoli: Modena are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Modena host Empoli in the Serie B on Sun 20 Sept, 17:30 at Alberto Braglia. Our prediction for Modena vs Empoli is Modena to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20.

Modena form

Modena have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Empoli form

Empoli have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Modena won 1, Empoli won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Empoli 0, Modena 0.

Our call

We expect Modena to score about 1.3 goals and Empoli about 0.9. That points to Modena to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 7.14.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ModenaEmpoli
Games played2020
Wins84
Draws47
Losses89
Goals scored2624
Goals conceded2130
Scored per game1.31.2
Conceded per game1.11.5
Home record4W 1D 4L3W 4D 2L
Away record4W 3D 4L1W 3D 7L
Clean sheets25%15%
Both teams scored55%65%
Over 2.5 goals55%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals65%1.54
Over 2.5 goals37%2.68
Over 3.5 goals18%5.61
Both teams to score43%2.31
Modena or Draw76%1.32
Empoli or Draw54%1.86
Modena to win and Over 2.522%4.45
Empoli to win and Over 2.511%9.35
Modena clean sheet42%2.39
Empoli clean sheet27%3.73

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-014.0%
1-113.6%
0-012.0%
2-09.7%
0-19.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Modena vs Empoli?

Our prediction for Modena vs Empoli is Modena to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.20.

What is the score prediction for Modena vs Empoli?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-0. We expect Modena to score 1.3 goals and Empoli 0.9.

Will both teams score in Modena vs Empoli?

Both teams to score has a 43% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Modena last 20 games and 13 of Empoli last 20.

How are Modena playing?

Modena have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 21 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Empoli playing?

Empoli have 4 wins, 7 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 30 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 7 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Modena and Empoli last met?

It ended Empoli 0, Modena 0. In the last 2 meetings Modena won 1 and Empoli won 0.

What is the best bet for Modena vs Empoli?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.20, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Modena against Empoli. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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