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Predictions › Italy › Modena vs Hellas Verona
Serie BSun 11 Oct, 17:30 Italy time

Modena vs Hellas Verona prediction

Alberto Braglia

ModenaHome
1.52 : 1.03
expected goals
Hellas VeronaAway
48%Modena
27%Draw
25%Verona
Eagle safe pickModena or Draw
1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Modena vs Hellas Verona is Modena to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Modena or Draw at 1.33.

Prediction
Modena to win
Chance
48%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Modena 1.5, Hellas Verona 1.0
Best bet
Modena or Draw at 1.33
Both teams to score
51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Modena or Draw
75% chanceFair price 1.332 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Modena to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 3.701 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Modena 48%, the draw 27% and Hellas Verona 25%. The bookmakers agree and make Modena the favourite at 1.95.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Modena took 10 points from their last 5 games and Hellas Verona took 7 from 5. Modena come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Modena won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Hellas Verona won 1 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Modena score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.1. Hellas Verona score 0.8 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Modena games and 9 of Hellas Verona games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Modena or Draw has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Modenarecent form+3%
  • Veronarecent form+3%
Modena form W D L W WVerona form W L W W DHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Modena vs Hellas Verona: Modena are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Modena host Hellas Verona in the Serie B on Sun 11 Oct, 17:30 at Alberto Braglia. Our prediction for Modena vs Hellas Verona is Modena to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Modena or Draw at 1.33.

Modena form

Modena have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, W, newest first.

Hellas Verona form

Hellas Verona have 3 wins, 5 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Modena to score about 1.5 goals and Hellas Verona about 1.0. That points to Modena to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Modena or Draw at 1.33. Our bold bet is Modena to win and Over 2.5 at 3.70.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ModenaVerona
Games played2020
Wins83
Draws45
Losses812
Goals scored2617
Goals conceded2227
Scored per game1.30.8
Conceded per game1.11.4
Home record5W 1D 4L2W 2D 7L
Away record3W 3D 4L1W 3D 5L
Clean sheets20%15%
Both teams scored60%50%
Over 2.5 goals60%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Modena to win45%2.221.95-12.0%
A Draw27%3.773.30-12.5%
Hellas Verona to win24%4.113.75-8.8%
Over 2.5 goals44%2.271.95-14.1%
Under 2.5 goals50%2.001.71-14.1%
Modena -0.546%2.201.87-14.8%
Hellas Verona +0.549%2.061.77-14.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals73%1.37
Over 2.5 goals47%2.13
Over 3.5 goals25%3.95
Both teams to score51%1.96
Modena or Draw75%1.33
Hellas Verona or Draw52%1.92
Modena to win and Over 2.528%3.60
Hellas Verona to win and Over 2.513%7.45
Modena clean sheet36%2.79
Hellas Verona clean sheet22%4.58

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.0%
1-011.2%
2-19.3%
2-09.0%
0-08.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Modena vs Hellas Verona?

Our prediction for Modena vs Hellas Verona is Modena to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Modena or Draw at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Modena vs Hellas Verona?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Modena to score 1.5 goals and Hellas Verona 1.0.

Will both teams score in Modena vs Hellas Verona?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Modena last 20 games and 10 of Hellas Verona last 20.

How are Modena playing?

Modena have 8 wins, 4 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 22 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, W, newest first.

How are Hellas Verona playing?

Hellas Verona have 3 wins, 5 draws and 12 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Modena vs Hellas Verona?

Modena or Draw at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Modena against Verona. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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