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Predictions › Italy › Modena vs Mantova
Serie BSat 31 Oct, 14:00 Italy time

Modena vs Mantova prediction

Alberto Braglia

ModenaHome
1.39 : 1.28
expected goals
MantovaAway
39%Modena
27%Draw
34%Mantova
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.32

Quick answer

Our prediction for Modena vs Mantova is Modena to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Prediction
Modena to win
Chance
39%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Modena 1.4, Mantova 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.32
Both teams to score
55%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.322 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.661 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Modena 39%, the draw 27% and Mantova 34%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Modena took 7 points from their last 5 games and Mantova took 8 from 5. Mantova come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Modena won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Mantova won 4 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Modena score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.3. Mantova score 1.7 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Modena games and 12 of Mantova games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Modena won 2 and Mantova won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Modena 2, Mantova 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Modenarecent form+1%
  • Mantovarecent form+3%
Modena form D W W D LMantova form D W D W DHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Modena vs Mantova: Modena shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Modena host Mantova in the Serie B on Sat 31 Oct, 14:00 at Alberto Braglia. Our prediction for Modena vs Mantova is Modena to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

Modena form

Modena have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, L, newest first.

Mantova form

Mantova have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Modena won 2, Mantova won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Modena 2, Mantova 1.

Our call

We expect Modena to score about 1.4 goals and Mantova about 1.3. That points to Modena to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.66.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

ModenaMantova
Games played2020
Wins711
Draws44
Losses95
Goals scored2634
Goals conceded2525
Scored per game1.31.7
Conceded per game1.31.3
Home record5W 1D 4L7W 2D 2L
Away record2W 3D 5L4W 2D 3L
Clean sheets15%30%
Both teams scored65%55%
Over 2.5 goals65%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals75%1.33
Over 2.5 goals50%2.00
Over 3.5 goals28%3.58
Both teams to score55%1.82
Modena or Draw66%1.51
Mantova or Draw61%1.63
Modena to win and Over 2.523%4.30
Mantova to win and Over 2.520%5.01
Modena clean sheet28%3.60
Mantova clean sheet25%4.01

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.1%
1-08.9%
2-18.6%
0-18.1%
1-27.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Modena vs Mantova?

Our prediction for Modena vs Mantova is Modena to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.32.

What is the score prediction for Modena vs Mantova?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-1. We expect Modena to score 1.4 goals and Mantova 1.3.

Will both teams score in Modena vs Mantova?

Both teams to score has a 55% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Modena last 20 games and 11 of Mantova last 20.

How are Modena playing?

Modena have 7 wins, 4 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, L, newest first.

How are Mantova playing?

Mantova have 11 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 34 goals scored and 25 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Modena and Mantova last met?

It ended Modena 2, Mantova 1. In the last 2 meetings Modena won 2 and Mantova won 0.

What is the best bet for Modena vs Mantova?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.32, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Modena against Mantova. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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