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Predictions › Norway › Molde vs Aalesund
EliteserienSat 19 Sept, 16:00 Norway time

Molde vs Aalesund prediction

Aker Stadion

MoldeHome
2.57 : 1.06
expected goals
AalesundAway
69%Molde
17%Draw
13%Aalesund
Eagle safe pickOver 2.5 goals
1.41

Quick answer

Our prediction for Molde vs Aalesund is Molde to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.41.

Prediction
Molde to win
Chance
69%
Most likely score
2-1
Expected goals
Molde 2.6, Aalesund 1.1
Best bet
Over 2.5 goals at 1.41
Both teams to score
61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 2.5 goals
71% chanceFair price 1.411 unit
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Molde to win and both score
35% chanceFair price 2.861 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Molde 69%, the draw 17% and Aalesund 13%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Molde took 10 points from their last 5 games and Aalesund took 5 from 5. Molde come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Molde won 7 of their last 10 games at home. Aalesund won 1 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Molde score 1.9 goals a game and let in 1.5. Aalesund score 1.5 and let in 2.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Molde games and 11 of Aalesund games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Molde won 0 and Aalesund won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Aalesund 2, Molde 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 2.5 goals has a 71% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Molderecent form+3%
  • Aalesundrecent form-1%
Molde form W W W L DAalesund form W L D D LHome edge in this league 34% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Molde vs Aalesund: Molde are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Molde host Aalesund in the Eliteserien on Sat 19 Sept, 16:00 at Aker Stadion. Our prediction for Molde vs Aalesund is Molde to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.41.

Molde form

Molde have 10 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

Aalesund form

Aalesund have 3 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses in their last 19 games, with 28 goals scored and 41 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Molde won 0, Aalesund won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Aalesund 2, Molde 2.

Our call

We expect Molde to score about 2.6 goals and Aalesund about 1.1. That points to Molde to win, with 2-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.41. Our bold bet is Molde to win and both score at 2.86.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MoldeAalesund
Games played2019
Wins103
Draws39
Losses77
Goals scored3828
Goals conceded3041
Scored per game1.91.5
Conceded per game1.52.2
Home record7W 1D 2L2W 6D 3L
Away record3W 2D 5L1W 3D 4L
Clean sheets20%11%
Both teams scored65%79%
Over 2.5 goals60%58%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals88%1.13
Over 2.5 goals70%1.42
Over 3.5 goals49%2.03
Both teams to score61%1.64
Molde or Draw87%1.15
Aalesund or Draw31%3.26
Molde to win and Over 2.554%1.84
Aalesund to win and Over 2.59%10.77
Molde clean sheet35%2.90
Aalesund clean sheet8%13.04

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

2-19.3%
2-08.7%
3-17.9%
1-17.7%
3-07.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Molde vs Aalesund?

Our prediction for Molde vs Aalesund is Molde to win, with a 69% chance. The most likely score is 2-1. Our best bet is Over 2.5 goals at 1.41.

What is the score prediction for Molde vs Aalesund?

2-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-0 and 3-1. We expect Molde to score 2.6 goals and Aalesund 1.1.

Will both teams score in Molde vs Aalesund?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Molde last 20 games and 15 of Aalesund last 19.

How are Molde playing?

Molde have 10 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, L, D, newest first.

How are Aalesund playing?

Aalesund have 3 wins, 9 draws and 7 losses in their last 19 games, with 28 goals scored and 41 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 3 draws and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, L, D, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Molde and Aalesund last met?

It ended Aalesund 2, Molde 2. In the last 1 meeting Molde won 0 and Aalesund won 0.

What is the best bet for Molde vs Aalesund?

Over 2.5 goals at 1.41, with a 71% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Molde against Aalesund. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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