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Predictions › Norway › Molde vs Fredrikstad
EliteserienSun 25 Oct, 18:15 Norway time

Molde vs Fredrikstad prediction

Aker Stadion

MoldeHome
2.03 : 1.17
expected goals
FredrikstadAway
57%Molde
22%Draw
21%Fredrikstad
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.22

Quick answer

Our prediction for Molde vs Fredrikstad is Molde to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Prediction
Molde to win
Chance
57%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Molde 2.0, Fredrikstad 1.2
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.22
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.222 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Molde to win and Over 2.5
41% chanceFair price 2.421 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Molde 57%, the draw 22% and Fredrikstad 21%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Molde took 10 points from their last 5 games and Fredrikstad took 6 from 5. Molde come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Molde won 6 of their last 10 games at home. Fredrikstad won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Molde score 2.1 goals a game and let in 1.5. Fredrikstad score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of Molde games and 9 of Fredrikstad games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Molde won 0 and Fredrikstad won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Molde 1, Fredrikstad 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Molderecent form+3%
Molde form D L W W WFredrikstad form D D D L WHome edge in this league 32% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Molde vs Fredrikstad: Molde are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Molde host Fredrikstad in the Eliteserien on Sun 25 Oct, 18:15 at Aker Stadion. Our prediction for Molde vs Fredrikstad is Molde to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

Molde form

Molde have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 43 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Fredrikstad form

Fredrikstad have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Molde won 0, Fredrikstad won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Molde 1, Fredrikstad 2.

Our call

We expect Molde to score about 2.0 goals and Fredrikstad about 1.2. That points to Molde to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22. Our bold bet is Molde to win and Over 2.5 at 2.42.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MoldeFredrikstad
Games played2020
Wins107
Draws45
Losses68
Goals scored4323
Goals conceded3028
Scored per game2.11.1
Conceded per game1.51.4
Home record6W 1D 3L4W 3D 3L
Away record4W 3D 3L3W 2D 5L
Clean sheets15%15%
Both teams scored75%65%
Over 2.5 goals70%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1.20
Over 2.5 goals62%1.61
Over 3.5 goals40%2.52
Both teams to score60%1.66
Molde or Draw79%1.26
Fredrikstad or Draw43%2.32
Molde to win and Over 2.541%2.46
Fredrikstad to win and Over 2.514%7.23
Molde clean sheet31%3.21
Fredrikstad clean sheet13%7.64

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.3%
2-19.8%
2-08.4%
1-07.7%
3-16.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Molde vs Fredrikstad?

Our prediction for Molde vs Fredrikstad is Molde to win, with a 57% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.22.

What is the score prediction for Molde vs Fredrikstad?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Molde to score 2.0 goals and Fredrikstad 1.2.

Will both teams score in Molde vs Fredrikstad?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Molde last 20 games and 13 of Fredrikstad last 20.

How are Molde playing?

Molde have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 43 goals scored and 30 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, W, newest first.

How are Fredrikstad playing?

Fredrikstad have 7 wins, 5 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, D, L, W, newest first.

What happened when Molde and Fredrikstad last met?

It ended Molde 1, Fredrikstad 2. In the last 1 meeting Molde won 0 and Fredrikstad won 1.

What is the best bet for Molde vs Fredrikstad?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.22, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Molde against Fredrikstad. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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