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Predictions › Mexico › Monterrey vs Guadalajara
Liga MXSun 25 Oct, 00:00 Mexico time

Monterrey vs Guadalajara prediction

Estadio BBVA

MonterreyHome
1.42 : 1.45
expected goals
GuadalajaraAway
36%Monterrey
26%Draw
38%Guadalajara
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Monterrey vs Guadalajara is Guadalajara to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
Guadalajara to win
Chance
38%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Monterrey 1.4, Guadalajara 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
12% chanceFair price 8.081 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Monterrey 36%, the draw 26% and Guadalajara 38%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Monterrey took 5 points from their last 5 games and Guadalajara took 8 from 5. Guadalajara come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Monterrey won 4 of their last 10 games at home. Guadalajara won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Monterrey score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.7. Guadalajara score 1.6 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Monterrey games and 10 of Guadalajara games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Monterrey won 0 and Guadalajara won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Monterrey 2, Guadalajara 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Monterreyrecent form-1%
  • Guadalajararecent form+1%
Monterrey form D L W D LGuadalajara form D L D W WHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Monterrey vs Guadalajara: Guadalajara shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Monterrey host Guadalajara in the Liga MX on Sun 25 Oct, 00:00 at Estadio BBVA. Our prediction for Monterrey vs Guadalajara is Guadalajara to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Monterrey form

Monterrey have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, D, L, newest first.

Guadalajara form

Guadalajara have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Monterrey won 0, Guadalajara won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Monterrey 2, Guadalajara 3.

Our call

We expect Monterrey to score about 1.4 goals and Guadalajara about 1.4. That points to Guadalajara to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 8.08.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MonterreyGuadalajara
Games played2020
Wins57
Draws58
Losses105
Goals scored2832
Goals conceded3424
Scored per game1.41.6
Conceded per game1.71.2
Home record4W 1D 5L5W 2D 3L
Away record1W 4D 5L2W 6D 2L
Clean sheets20%40%
Both teams scored65%50%
Over 2.5 goals60%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%1.27
Over 2.5 goals55%1.83
Over 3.5 goals32%3.09
Both teams to score59%1.70
Monterrey or Draw62%1.60
Guadalajara or Draw64%1.56
Monterrey to win and Over 2.523%4.34
Guadalajara to win and Over 2.524%4.15
Monterrey clean sheet23%4.27
Guadalajara clean sheet24%4.13

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.4%
1-28.5%
2-18.3%
0-17.5%
1-07.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Monterrey vs Guadalajara?

Our prediction for Monterrey vs Guadalajara is Guadalajara to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Monterrey vs Guadalajara?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Monterrey to score 1.4 goals and Guadalajara 1.4.

Will both teams score in Monterrey vs Guadalajara?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Monterrey last 20 games and 10 of Guadalajara last 20.

How are Monterrey playing?

Monterrey have 5 wins, 5 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, D, L, newest first.

How are Guadalajara playing?

Guadalajara have 7 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, D, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Monterrey and Guadalajara last met?

It ended Monterrey 2, Guadalajara 3. In the last 2 meetings Monterrey won 0 and Guadalajara won 2.

What is the best bet for Monterrey vs Guadalajara?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Monterrey against Guadalajara. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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