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Predictions › Mexico › Monterrey vs Pachuca
Liga MXMon 19 Oct, 01:00 Mexico time

Monterrey vs Pachuca prediction

Estadio BBVA

MonterreyHome
1.14 : 1.29
expected goals
PachucaAway
32%Monterrey
29%Draw
39%Pachuca
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Monterrey vs Pachuca is Pachuca to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Pachuca to win
Chance
39%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Monterrey 1.1, Pachuca 1.3
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
50%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.301 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Monterrey 32%, the draw 29% and Pachuca 39%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Monterrey took 4 points from their last 5 games and Pachuca took 8 from 5. Pachuca come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Monterrey won 5 of their last 11 games at home. Pachuca won 6 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Monterrey score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.6. Pachuca score 1.5 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Monterrey games and 9 of Pachuca games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Monterrey won 0 and Pachuca won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Monterrey 1, Pachuca 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Pachucarecent form+1%
Monterrey form L W D L WPachuca form L D W W DHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Monterrey vs Pachuca: Pachuca shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Monterrey host Pachuca in the Liga MX on Mon 19 Oct, 01:00 at Estadio BBVA. Our prediction for Monterrey vs Pachuca is Pachuca to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Monterrey form

Monterrey have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, L, newest first.

Pachuca form

Pachuca have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Monterrey won 0, Pachuca won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Monterrey 1, Pachuca 3.

Our call

We expect Monterrey to score about 1.1 goals and Pachuca about 1.3. That points to Pachuca to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.30.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MonterreyPachuca
Games played2020
Wins69
Draws44
Losses107
Goals scored3130
Goals conceded3322
Scored per game1.61.5
Conceded per game1.61.1
Home record5W 1D 5L3W 3D 3L
Away record1W 3D 5L6W 1D 4L
Clean sheets25%30%
Both teams scored60%50%
Over 2.5 goals65%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals71%1.41
Over 2.5 goals44%2.27
Over 3.5 goals23%4.37
Both teams to score50%1.99
Monterrey or Draw61%1.65
Pachuca or Draw68%1.47
Monterrey to win and Over 2.517%5.89
Pachuca to win and Over 2.521%4.68
Monterrey clean sheet27%3.65
Pachuca clean sheet32%3.13

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.7%
0-110.5%
0-09.5%
1-09.2%
1-28.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Monterrey vs Pachuca?

Our prediction for Monterrey vs Pachuca is Pachuca to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Monterrey vs Pachuca?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Monterrey to score 1.1 goals and Pachuca 1.3.

Will both teams score in Monterrey vs Pachuca?

Both teams to score has a 50% chance. Both sides scored in 12 of Monterrey last 20 games and 10 of Pachuca last 20.

How are Monterrey playing?

Monterrey have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, D, L, L, newest first.

How are Pachuca playing?

Pachuca have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Monterrey and Pachuca last met?

It ended Monterrey 1, Pachuca 3. In the last 1 meeting Monterrey won 0 and Pachuca won 1.

What is the best bet for Monterrey vs Pachuca?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Monterrey against Pachuca. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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