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Predictions › Uruguay › Montevideo Wanderers vs Albion FC
Uruguayan Primera DivisionMon 28 Sept, 23:00 Uruguay time

Montevideo Wanderers vs Albion FC prediction

Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera

Montevideo WanderersHome
1.32 : 0.99
expected goals
Albion FCAway
43%Wanderers
29%Draw
27%Albion
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Montevideo Wanderers vs Albion FC is Montevideo Wanderers to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction
Montevideo Wanderers to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Montevideo Wanderers 1.3, Albion FC 1.0
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score
47%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.292 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.271 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Montevideo Wanderers 43%, the draw 29% and Albion FC 27%. The bookmakers agree and make Montevideo Wanderers the favourite at 2.20.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Montevideo Wanderers took 5 points from their last 5 games and Albion FC took 0 from 5. Montevideo Wanderers come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Montevideo Wanderers won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Albion FC won 4 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Montevideo Wanderers score 1.3 goals a game and let in 1.3. Albion FC score 1.3 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Montevideo Wanderers games and 11 of Albion FC games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Montevideo Wanderers won 0 and Albion FC won 1 with 1 draw. The last one ended Albion FC 0, Montevideo Wanderers 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Wanderersrecent form-1%
  • Albionrecent form-7%
Wanderers form D D L W LAlbion form L L L L LHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Montevideo Wanderers vs Albion FC: Montevideo Wanderers shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Montevideo Wanderers host Albion FC in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Mon 28 Sept, 23:00 at Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera. Our prediction for Montevideo Wanderers vs Albion FC is Montevideo Wanderers to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29.

Montevideo Wanderers form

Montevideo Wanderers have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, W, L, newest first.

Albion FC form

Albion FC have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Montevideo Wanderers won 0, Albion FC won 1 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Albion FC 0, Montevideo Wanderers 0.

Our call

We expect Montevideo Wanderers to score about 1.3 goals and Albion FC about 1.0. That points to Montevideo Wanderers to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.27.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

WanderersAlbion
Games played2020
Wins86
Draws64
Losses610
Goals scored2626
Goals conceded2528
Scored per game1.31.3
Conceded per game1.31.4
Home record4W 4D 1L2W 3D 5L
Away record4W 2D 5L4W 1D 5L
Clean sheets40%15%
Both teams scored55%60%
Over 2.5 goals40%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Montevideo Wanderers to win40%2.492.20-11.6%
A Draw28%3.553.00-15.4%
Albion FC to win26%3.813.20-16.0%
Over 2.5 goals41%2.422.00-17.3%
Under 2.5 goals52%1.911.71-10.2%
Montevideo Wanderers -0.540%2.532.15-14.9%
Albion FC +0.554%1.851.59-14.0%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals68%1.47
Over 2.5 goals41%2.47
Over 3.5 goals20%4.96
Both teams to score47%2.14
Montevideo Wanderers or Draw73%1.37
Albion FC or Draw57%1.76
Montevideo Wanderers to win and Over 2.522%4.48
Albion FC to win and Over 2.513%7.52
Montevideo Wanderers clean sheet37%2.69
Albion FC clean sheet27%3.73

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.8%
1-012.4%
0-010.8%
0-19.1%
2-08.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Montevideo Wanderers vs Albion FC?

Our prediction for Montevideo Wanderers vs Albion FC is Montevideo Wanderers to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Montevideo Wanderers vs Albion FC?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Montevideo Wanderers to score 1.3 goals and Albion FC 1.0.

Will both teams score in Montevideo Wanderers vs Albion FC?

Both teams to score has a 47% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Montevideo Wanderers last 20 games and 12 of Albion FC last 20.

How are Montevideo Wanderers playing?

Montevideo Wanderers have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, W, L, newest first.

How are Albion FC playing?

Albion FC have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Montevideo Wanderers and Albion FC last met?

It ended Albion FC 0, Montevideo Wanderers 0. In the last 2 meetings Montevideo Wanderers won 0 and Albion FC won 1.

What is the best bet for Montevideo Wanderers vs Albion FC?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Wanderers against Albion. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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