Predictions › Uruguay › Montevideo Wanderers vs Juventud

Uruguayan Primera DivisionMon 16 Nov, 23:00 Uruguay time

Montevideo Wanderers vs Juventud prediction

Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera

Montevideo WanderersHome

1.10 : 0.96

expected goals

JuventudAway

38%Wanderers

32%Draw

31%Juventud

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for Montevideo Wanderers vs Juventud is Montevideo Wanderers to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.19.

Prediction: Montevideo Wanderers to win
Chance: 38%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Montevideo Wanderers 1.1, Juventud 1.0
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.19
Both teams to score: 42%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

84% chanceFair price 1.192 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1

14% chanceFair price 7.011 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Montevideo Wanderers 38%, the draw 32% and Juventud 31%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
Montevideo Wanderers took 4 points from their last 5 games and Juventud took 5 from 5. Juventud come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Montevideo Wanderers won 3 of their last 9 games at home. Juventud won 3 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Montevideo Wanderers score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.4. Juventud score 1.0 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Montevideo Wanderers games and 5 of Juventud games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Montevideo Wanderers won 1 and Juventud won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Juventud 2, Montevideo Wanderers 5.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Wanderersrecent form-3%
Juventudrecent form-1%

Wanderers form D L L L WJuventud form L D L W DHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Montevideo Wanderers vs Juventud: Montevideo Wanderers shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Montevideo Wanderers host Juventud in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Mon 16 Nov, 23:00 at Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera. Our prediction for Montevideo Wanderers vs Juventud is Montevideo Wanderers to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.19.

Montevideo Wanderers form

Montevideo Wanderers have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 28 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 4 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Juventud form

Juventud have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 20 goals scored and 21 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, L, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Montevideo Wanderers won 1, Juventud won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Juventud 2, Montevideo Wanderers 5.

Our call

We expect Montevideo Wanderers to score about 1.1 goals and Juventud about 1.0. That points to Montevideo Wanderers to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.19. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.01.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Wanderers	Juventud
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	6
Draws	6	8
Losses	6	6
Goals scored	27	20
Goals conceded	28	21
Scored per game	1.4	1.0
Conceded per game	1.4	1.1
Home record	3W 4D 2L	3W 3D 3L
Away record	5W 2D 4L	3W 5D 3L
Clean sheets	30%	45%
Both teams scored	55%	40%
Over 2.5 goals	40%	25%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	62%	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	34%	2.94
Over 3.5 goals	15%	6.49
Both teams to score	42%	2.38
Montevideo Wanderers or Draw	69%	1.44
Juventud or Draw	62%	1.60
Montevideo Wanderers to win and Over 2.5	17%	5.98
Juventud to win and Over 2.5	13%	7.55
Montevideo Wanderers clean sheet	38%	2.62
Juventud clean sheet	33%	3.00

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-114.3%

0-013.5%

1-013.2%

0-111.5%

2-07.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Montevideo Wanderers vs Juventud?

Our prediction for Montevideo Wanderers vs Juventud is Montevideo Wanderers to win, with a 38% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for Montevideo Wanderers vs Juventud?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-0 and 1-0. We expect Montevideo Wanderers to score 1.1 goals and Juventud 1.0.

Will both teams score in Montevideo Wanderers vs Juventud?

Both teams to score has a 42% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Montevideo Wanderers last 20 games and 8 of Juventud last 20.

How are Montevideo Wanderers playing?

How are Juventud playing?

What happened when Montevideo Wanderers and Juventud last met?

It ended Juventud 2, Montevideo Wanderers 5. In the last 2 meetings Montevideo Wanderers won 1 and Juventud won 1.

What is the best bet for Montevideo Wanderers vs Juventud?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Wanderers against Juventud. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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