EagleEyeOdds eagleEagleEyeOddsToday's picks
PredictionsBest bets by countryKenyaNigeriaGhanaSouth AfricaUnited KingdomUnited StatesIndiaTanzaniaUgandaZambiaCameroonIvory CoastAll 54 countriesNewsOur recordHow Eagle 2.0 worksResponsible gambling
Predictions › Uruguay › Montevideo Wanderers vs Progreso
Uruguayan Primera DivisionSun 25 Oct, 19:00 Uruguay time

Montevideo Wanderers vs Progreso prediction

Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera

Montevideo WanderersHome
1.29 : 0.87
expected goals
ProgresoAway
46%Wanderers
30%Draw
24%Progreso
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for Montevideo Wanderers vs Progreso is Montevideo Wanderers to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction
Montevideo Wanderers to win
Chance
46%
Most likely score
1-0
Expected goals
Montevideo Wanderers 1.3, Progreso 0.9
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score
43%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
81% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-0
14% chanceFair price 7.071 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Montevideo Wanderers 46%, the draw 30% and Progreso 24%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Montevideo Wanderers took 8 points from their last 5 games and Progreso took 7 from 5. Montevideo Wanderers come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Montevideo Wanderers won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Progreso won 3 of their last 12 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Montevideo Wanderers score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.3. Progreso score 0.8 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Montevideo Wanderers games and 9 of Progreso games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Montevideo Wanderers won 1 and Progreso won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Montevideo Wanderers 2, Progreso 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 81% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Wanderersrecent form+3%
Wanderers form D W W D DProgreso form D L W W LHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Montevideo Wanderers vs Progreso: Montevideo Wanderers are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Montevideo Wanderers host Progreso in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Sun 25 Oct, 19:00 at Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera. Our prediction for Montevideo Wanderers vs Progreso is Montevideo Wanderers to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

Montevideo Wanderers form

Montevideo Wanderers have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, D, newest first.

Progreso form

Progreso have 6 wins, 1 draw and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 8 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Montevideo Wanderers won 1, Progreso won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Montevideo Wanderers 2, Progreso 0.

Our call

We expect Montevideo Wanderers to score about 1.3 goals and Progreso about 0.9. That points to Montevideo Wanderers to win, with 1-0 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-0 at 7.07.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

WanderersProgreso
Games played2020
Wins96
Draws61
Losses513
Goals scored2817
Goals conceded2528
Scored per game1.40.8
Conceded per game1.31.4
Home record4W 4D 1L3W 0D 5L
Away record5W 2D 4L3W 1D 8L
Clean sheets40%15%
Both teams scored55%50%
Over 2.5 goals40%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals64%1.56
Over 2.5 goals37%2.73
Over 3.5 goals17%5.80
Both teams to score43%2.34
Montevideo Wanderers or Draw76%1.32
Progreso or Draw54%1.84
Montevideo Wanderers to win and Over 2.522%4.58
Progreso to win and Over 2.511%9.39
Montevideo Wanderers clean sheet42%2.38
Progreso clean sheet27%3.64

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-014.2%
1-113.7%
0-012.3%
2-09.6%
0-19.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Montevideo Wanderers vs Progreso?

Our prediction for Montevideo Wanderers vs Progreso is Montevideo Wanderers to win, with a 46% chance. The most likely score is 1-0. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for Montevideo Wanderers vs Progreso?

1-0 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 0-0. We expect Montevideo Wanderers to score 1.3 goals and Progreso 0.9.

Will both teams score in Montevideo Wanderers vs Progreso?

Both teams to score has a 43% chance. Both sides scored in 11 of Montevideo Wanderers last 20 games and 10 of Progreso last 20.

How are Montevideo Wanderers playing?

Montevideo Wanderers have 9 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 25 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, D, D, newest first.

How are Progreso playing?

Progreso have 6 wins, 1 draw and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 17 goals scored and 28 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 1 draw and 8 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Montevideo Wanderers and Progreso last met?

It ended Montevideo Wanderers 2, Progreso 0. In the last 3 meetings Montevideo Wanderers won 1 and Progreso won 2.

What is the best bet for Montevideo Wanderers vs Progreso?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.23, with a 81% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Wanderers against Progreso. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
  • 18 plus only. Betting is for adults. In some countries the legal age is higher and in some it is not allowed at all. You alone are responsible for checking the law where you live.
  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
  • No advice for your money. We are not financial advisers and we do not know your situation. Nothing here is financial advice or a recommendation to stake any amount.
  • Betting can harm you. If it stops being fun, if you chase losses, or if you hide it from people close to you, stop and get help. Free and private support is available from BeGambleAware, GamCare and Gamblers Anonymous. Read our responsible gambling page for tools that block betting sites.

Full terms are on our disclaimer and terms pages.

Note: Never stake money you need for rent, food, bills or anyone who depends on you.