Predictions › France › Montpellier vs Grenoble

Ligue 2Fri 9 Oct, 18:00 France time

Montpellier vs Grenoble prediction

Stade de la Mosson

MontpellierHome

1.68 : 0.91

expected goals

GrenobleAway

55%Montpellier

26%Draw

19%Grenoble

Eagle safe pickMontpellier or Draw

1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Montpellier vs Grenoble is Montpellier to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Montpellier or Draw at 1.28.

Prediction: Montpellier to win
Chance: 55%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Montpellier 1.7, Grenoble 0.9
Best bet: Montpellier or Draw at 1.28
Both teams to score: 49%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Montpellier or Draw

78% chanceFair price 1.282 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Montpellier to win and Over 2.5

31% chanceFair price 3.241 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Montpellier 55%, the draw 26% and Grenoble 19%. The bookmakers agree and make Montpellier the favourite at 1.61.
2
Recent form
Montpellier took 8 points from their last 5 games and Grenoble took 7 from 5. Montpellier come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Montpellier won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Grenoble won 3 of their last 11 on the road.
4
Goals
Montpellier score 1.1 goals a game and let in 0.8. Grenoble score 0.9 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 6 of Montpellier games and 7 of Grenoble games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, Montpellier won 1 and Grenoble won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Montpellier 2, Grenoble 1.
6
The safest bet
Montpellier or Draw has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Montpellierrecent form+1%

Montpellier form D W L D WGrenoble form D W L W LHome edge in this league 10% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Montpellier vs Grenoble: Montpellier are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Montpellier host Grenoble in the Ligue 2 on Fri 9 Oct, 18:00 at Stade de la Mosson. Our prediction for Montpellier vs Grenoble is Montpellier to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Montpellier or Draw at 1.28.

Montpellier form

Montpellier have 8 wins, 8 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, D, W, newest first.

Grenoble form

Grenoble have 4 wins, 10 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Montpellier won 1, Grenoble won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Montpellier 2, Grenoble 1.

Our call

We expect Montpellier to score about 1.7 goals and Grenoble about 0.9. That points to Montpellier to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Montpellier or Draw at 1.28. Our bold bet is Montpellier to win and Over 2.5 at 3.24.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Montpellier	Grenoble
Games played	20	20
Wins	8	4
Draws	8	10
Losses	4	6
Goals scored	23	18
Goals conceded	15	22
Scored per game	1.1	0.9
Conceded per game	0.8	1.1
Home record	4W 4D 1L	1W 7D 1L
Away record	4W 4D 3L	3W 3D 5L
Clean sheets	50%	45%
Both teams scored	40%	45%
Over 2.5 goals	30%	35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Montpellier to win	52%	1.93	1.61	-16.7%
A Draw	25%	4.04	3.75	-7.1%
Grenoble to win	19%	5.21	5.25	+0.9%
Over 2.5 goals	45%	2.24	1.91	-14.9%
Under 2.5 goals	49%	2.03	1.74	-14.4%
Montpellier -0.5	54%	1.85	1.56	-16.0%
Grenoble +0.5	40%	2.52	2.15	-14.5%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	74%	1.36
Over 2.5 goals	48%	2.09
Over 3.5 goals	26%	3.83
Both teams to score	49%	2.03
Montpellier or Draw	81%	1.24
Grenoble or Draw	45%	2.22
Montpellier to win and Over 2.5	32%	3.09
Grenoble to win and Over 2.5	10%	9.75
Montpellier clean sheet	40%	2.47
Grenoble clean sheet	19%	5.37

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.1%

1-012.0%

2-010.6%

2-19.6%

0-08.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Montpellier vs Grenoble?

Our prediction for Montpellier vs Grenoble is Montpellier to win, with a 55% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Montpellier or Draw at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Montpellier vs Grenoble?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 2-0. We expect Montpellier to score 1.7 goals and Grenoble 0.9.

Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Grenoble?

Both teams to score has a 49% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Montpellier last 20 games and 9 of Grenoble last 20.

How are Montpellier playing?

How are Grenoble playing?

What happened when Montpellier and Grenoble last met?

It ended Montpellier 2, Grenoble 1. In the last 2 meetings Montpellier won 1 and Grenoble won 0.

What is the best bet for Montpellier vs Grenoble?

Montpellier or Draw at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Montpellier against Grenoble. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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