Montreal Canadiens vs Pittsburgh Penguins prediction

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Canadiens +1.5

76% chancePrice -258+4.9% value2 units

★

Eagle value pick

Over 6.5 goals

50% chancePrice +110+5.8% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1. 1
   What our numbers say

   The model gives Pittsburgh Penguins 46% and Montreal Canadiens 54%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Pittsburgh Penguins the favourite at -110, so take care with this one.

2. 2
   Recent form

   Pittsburgh Penguins won 2 of their last 5 and Montreal Canadiens won 4 of their last 5. Montreal Canadiens come in with the better run.

3. 3
   Home and away

   Pittsburgh Penguins won 5 of their last 10 games at home. Montreal Canadiens won 7 of their last 11 on the road.

4. 4
   Scoring

   Pittsburgh Penguins score 3.4 goals a game and let in 3.5. Montreal Canadiens score 3.0 and let in 2.9. Their recent games average 6.8 and 5.9 goals in total, and the market line is 6.5.

5. 5
   Head to head

   In the last 4 meetings, Pittsburgh Penguins won 1 and Montreal Canadiens won 3. The last one ended Pittsburgh Penguins 4, Montreal Canadiens 3.

6. 6
   Where the value is

   Over 6.5 goals is priced at +110. Our fair price is -101, so the bookmaker pays about 5.8% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

Price check against Draft Kings

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Penguins +3.5 wins if Penguins win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.