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Predictions › United States › Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs
NHLTue 29 Sept, 19:00 United States time

Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs prediction

Scotiabank Arena

Montreal CanadiensAway
3.4 : 3.2
projected goals
Toronto Maple LeafsHome
54%Canadiens
46%Maple Leafs
Eagle value pickCanadiens +1.5
-258

Quick answer

Our prediction for Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs is Montreal Canadiens to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Montreal Canadiens 3.4 and Toronto Maple Leafs 3.2. Our best bet is Canadiens +1.5 at -258.

Prediction
Montreal Canadiens to win
Chance
54%
Projected score
Montreal Canadiens 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Projected total
6.6 goals
Best bet
Canadiens +1.5 at -258

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Canadiens +1.5
76% chancePrice -258+5.2% value2 units
★

Eagle value pick

Canadiens +1.5
76% chancePrice -258+5.2% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Toronto Maple Leafs 46% and Montreal Canadiens 54%. The bookmakers see it the other way and make Toronto Maple Leafs the favourite at -115, so take care with this one.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Toronto Maple Leafs won 2 of their last 5 and Montreal Canadiens won 4 of their last 5. Montreal Canadiens come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Toronto Maple Leafs won 2 of their last 8 games at home. Montreal Canadiens won 7 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Toronto Maple Leafs score 2.9 goals a game and let in 3.9. Montreal Canadiens score 3.0 and let in 2.9. Their recent games average 6.8 and 5.9 goals in total, and the market line is 6.5.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 5 meetings, Toronto Maple Leafs won 0 and Montreal Canadiens won 5. The last one ended Montreal Canadiens 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3.

  6. 6
    Where the value is

    Canadiens +1.5 is priced at -258. Our fair price is -313, so the bookmaker pays about 5.2% more than it should.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Canadiensrest between games-5%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs: Montreal Canadiens shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Toronto Maple Leafs host Montreal Canadiens in the NHL on Tue 29 Sept, 19:00 at Scotiabank Arena. Our prediction for Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs is Montreal Canadiens to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Montreal Canadiens 3.4 and Toronto Maple Leafs 3.2. Our best bet is Canadiens +1.5 at -258.

Toronto Maple Leafs form

Toronto Maple Leafs have 6 wins and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 58 goals scored and 77 conceded. At home they have 2 wins and 6 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Montreal Canadiens form

Montreal Canadiens have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 61 goals scored and 57 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 5 times in our records. Toronto Maple Leafs won 0, Montreal Canadiens won 5. Last time out it finished Montreal Canadiens 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3.

Our call

We expect Montreal Canadiens to score about 3.4 goals and Toronto Maple Leafs about 3.2. That points to Montreal Canadiens to win. Our safest bet is Canadiens +1.5 at -258. Our value bet is Canadiens +1.5 at -258.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

Maple LeafsCanadiens
Games played2020
Wins611
Losses149
Goals scored5861
Goals conceded7757
Scored per game2.93.0
Conceded per game3.92.9
Home record2W 6L4W 5L
Away record4W 8L7W 4L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Maple Leafs to win46%+116-115-13.2%
Canadiens to win47%+111-105-7.6%
Maple Leafs -1.523%+332+210-28.2%
Canadiens +1.576%-313-258+5.2%
Over 6.5 goals49%+104+100-1.9%
Under 6.5 goals45%+124-120-18.1%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Maple Leafs spreadCoversFair
Maple Leafs -0.538%+161
Maple Leafs +0.555%-121
Maple Leafs +1.570%-238
Total goalsOverUnder
5.569%31%
6.552%48%
7.535%65%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Maple Leafs +3.5 wins if Maple Leafs win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs?

Our prediction for Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs is Montreal Canadiens to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Montreal Canadiens 3.4 and Toronto Maple Leafs 3.2. Our best bet is Canadiens +1.5 at -258.

What is the projected score for Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs?

We project Montreal Canadiens 3.4 and Toronto Maple Leafs 3.2, about 6.6 goals in total.

How are Toronto Maple Leafs playing?

Toronto Maple Leafs have 6 wins and 14 losses in their last 20 games, with 58 goals scored and 77 conceded. At home they have 2 wins and 6 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Montreal Canadiens playing?

Montreal Canadiens have 11 wins and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 61 goals scored and 57 conceded. Away from home they have 7 wins and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens last met?

It ended Montreal Canadiens 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3. In the last 5 meetings Toronto Maple Leafs won 0 and Montreal Canadiens won 5.

What is the best bet for Montreal Canadiens vs Toronto Maple Leafs?

Canadiens +1.5 at -258, with a 76% chance. That price pays about 5.2% more than our fair price.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Maple Leafs against Canadiens. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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