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Predictions › Italy › Monza vs Napoli
Serie AWed 28 Oct, 19:45 Italy time

Monza vs Napoli prediction

U-Power Stadium

MonzaHome
1.20 : 1.40
expected goals
NapoliAway
32%Monza
28%Draw
41%Napoli
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Monza vs Napoli is Napoli to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Prediction
Napoli to win
Chance
41%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Monza 1.2, Napoli 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.33
Both teams to score
53%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1.332 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.551 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Monza 32%, the draw 28% and Napoli 41%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Monza took 4 points from their last 5 games and Napoli took 7 from 5. Napoli come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Monza won 5 of their last 9 games at home. Napoli won 3 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Monza score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.4. Napoli score 1.4 and let in 0.9. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Monza games and 9 of Napoli games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Napolirecent form+1%
  • Napolirest between games-5%
Monza form L W L D WNapoli form D L W D WHome edge in this league 11% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Monza vs Napoli: Napoli shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Monza host Napoli in the Serie A on Wed 28 Oct, 19:45 at U-Power Stadium. Our prediction for Monza vs Napoli is Napoli to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

Monza form

Monza have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, L, newest first.

Napoli form

Napoli have 10 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, D, W, newest first.

Our call

We expect Monza to score about 1.2 goals and Napoli about 1.4. That points to Napoli to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.55.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MonzaNapoli
Games played2020
Wins710
Draws73
Losses67
Goals scored3228
Goals conceded2919
Scored per game1.61.4
Conceded per game1.40.9
Home record5W 3D 1L7W 0D 4L
Away record2W 4D 5L3W 3D 3L
Clean sheets35%45%
Both teams scored65%40%
Over 2.5 goals60%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals74%1.35
Over 2.5 goals48%2.08
Over 3.5 goals26%3.80
Both teams to score53%1.88
Monza or Draw59%1.69
Napoli or Draw68%1.46
Monza to win and Over 2.518%5.57
Napoli to win and Over 2.524%4.21
Monza clean sheet25%4.04
Napoli clean sheet30%3.32

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.2%
0-19.7%
1-28.7%
0-08.2%
1-08.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Latest news on these teams

All news
LaLiga

Real Madrid Eye Scott McTominay as Napoli Contract Talks Stall

Real Madrid are monitoring Scott McTominay while Chelsea eye Frenkie de Jong ahead of the January transfer window.

9 Oct 2026

Questions people ask

Who will win Monza vs Napoli?

Our prediction for Monza vs Napoli is Napoli to win, with a 41% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Monza vs Napoli?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Monza to score 1.2 goals and Napoli 1.4.

Will both teams score in Monza vs Napoli?

Both teams to score has a 53% chance. Both sides scored in 13 of Monza last 20 games and 8 of Napoli last 20.

How are Monza playing?

Monza have 7 wins, 7 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 29 conceded. At home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Napoli playing?

Napoli have 10 wins, 3 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 3 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, D, W, newest first.

What is the best bet for Monza vs Napoli?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Monza against Napoli. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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