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Predictions › Portugal › Moreirense vs Estrela
Primeira LigaSat 31 Oct, 15:30 Portugal time

Moreirense vs Estrela prediction

Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

MoreirenseHome
1.46 : 1.54
expected goals
EstrelaAway
35%Moreirense
26%Draw
39%Estrela
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.25

Quick answer

Our prediction for Moreirense vs Estrela is Estrela to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Prediction
Estrela to win
Chance
39%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Moreirense 1.5, Estrela 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.25
Both teams to score
61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
80% chanceFair price 1.252 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
12% chanceFair price 8.411 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Moreirense 35%, the draw 26% and Estrela 39%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Moreirense took 4 points from their last 5 games and Estrela took 5 from 5. Estrela come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Moreirense won 3 of their last 11 games at home. Estrela won 1 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Moreirense score 0.8 goals a game and let in 1.7. Estrela score 1.3 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Moreirense games and 12 of Estrela games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Moreirense won 1 and Estrela won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended Moreirense 3, Estrela 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Moreirenserecent form-1%
  • Estrelarecent form-1%
Moreirense form D L D W LEstrela form D L L D WHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Moreirense vs Estrela: Estrela shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Moreirense host Estrela in the Primeira Liga on Sat 31 Oct, 15:30 at Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. Our prediction for Moreirense vs Estrela is Estrela to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

Moreirense form

Moreirense have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, L, newest first.

Estrela form

Estrela have 3 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, D, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Moreirense won 1, Estrela won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished Moreirense 3, Estrela 2.

Our call

We expect Moreirense to score about 1.5 goals and Estrela about 1.5. That points to Estrela to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 8.41.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MoreirenseEstrela
Games played2020
Wins43
Draws68
Losses109
Goals scored1626
Goals conceded3432
Scored per game0.81.3
Conceded per game1.71.6
Home record3W 3D 5L2W 4D 4L
Away record1W 3D 5L1W 4D 5L
Clean sheets15%15%
Both teams scored45%55%
Over 2.5 goals45%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%1.24
Over 2.5 goals58%1.74
Over 3.5 goals35%2.85
Both teams to score61%1.64
Moreirense or Draw61%1.64
Estrela or Draw65%1.55
Moreirense to win and Over 2.523%4.26
Estrela to win and Over 2.526%3.85
Moreirense clean sheet22%4.65
Estrela clean sheet23%4.29

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.9%
1-28.6%
2-18.2%
0-17.0%
1-06.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Moreirense vs Estrela?

Our prediction for Moreirense vs Estrela is Estrela to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.25.

What is the score prediction for Moreirense vs Estrela?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect Moreirense to score 1.5 goals and Estrela 1.5.

Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Estrela?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Moreirense last 20 games and 11 of Estrela last 20.

How are Moreirense playing?

Moreirense have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 16 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, D, W, L, L, newest first.

How are Estrela playing?

Estrela have 3 wins, 8 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 26 goals scored and 32 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read L, L, D, W, D, newest first.

What happened when Moreirense and Estrela last met?

It ended Moreirense 3, Estrela 2. In the last 2 meetings Moreirense won 1 and Estrela won 0.

What is the best bet for Moreirense vs Estrela?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.25, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Moreirense against Estrela. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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