Predictions › Portugal › Moreirense vs Gil Vicente

Primeira LigaFri 9 Oct, 17:45 Portugal time

Moreirense vs Gil Vicente prediction

Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

MoreirenseHome

1.07 : 1.28

expected goals

Gil VicenteAway

30%Moreirense

29%Draw

40%Gil Vicente

Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals

1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for Moreirense vs Gil Vicente is Gil Vicente to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction: Gil Vicente to win
Chance: 40%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: Moreirense 1.1, Gil Vicente 1.3
Best bet: Under 3.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score: 48%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals

77% chanceFair price 1.302 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Moreirense to win

29% chancePrice 3.50+2.2% value1 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives Moreirense 30%, the draw 29% and Gil Vicente 40%. The bookmakers agree and make Gil Vicente the favourite at 2.15.
2
Recent form
Moreirense took 7 points from their last 5 games and Gil Vicente took 5 from 5. Moreirense come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
Moreirense won 3 of their last 10 games at home. Gil Vicente won 1 of their last 9 on the road.
4
Goals
Moreirense score 0.9 goals a game and let in 1.7. Gil Vicente score 1.1 and let in 1.4. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Moreirense games and 12 of Gil Vicente games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, Moreirense won 0 and Gil Vicente won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Moreirense 1, Gil Vicente 2.
6
The safest bet
Under 3.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

Gil Vicenterecent form-1%

Moreirense form D W L L WGil Vicente form D L L D WHome edge in this league 20% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Moreirense vs Gil Vicente: Gil Vicente shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Moreirense host Gil Vicente in the Primeira Liga on Fri 9 Oct, 17:45 at Estádio Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas. Our prediction for Moreirense vs Gil Vicente is Gil Vicente to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

Moreirense form

Moreirense have 5 wins, 6 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 18 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, W, newest first.

Gil Vicente form

Gil Vicente have 6 wins, 6 draws and 8 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 27 conceded. Away from home they have 1 win, 4 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Moreirense won 0, Gil Vicente won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Moreirense 1, Gil Vicente 2.

Our call

We expect Moreirense to score about 1.1 goals and Gil Vicente about 1.3. That points to Gil Vicente to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is Moreirense to win at 3.50.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	Moreirense	Gil Vicente
Games played	20	20
Wins	5	6
Draws	6	6
Losses	9	8
Goals scored	18	23
Goals conceded	34	27
Scored per game	0.9	1.1
Conceded per game	1.7	1.4
Home record	3W 3D 4L	5W 2D 4L
Away record	2W 3D 5L	1W 4D 4L
Clean sheets	15%	25%
Both teams scored	50%	55%
Over 2.5 goals	50%	60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
Moreirense to win	29%	3.43	3.50	+2.2%
A Draw	28%	3.52	3.05	-13.3%
Gil Vicente to win	38%	2.65	2.15	-19.0%
Over 2.5 goals	38%	2.61	2.25	-13.9%
Under 2.5 goals	55%	1.80	1.56	-13.7%
Moreirense +0.5	54%	1.87	1.63	-12.9%
Gil Vicente -0.5	40%	2.49	2.05	-17.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	69%	1.45
Over 2.5 goals	42%	2.39
Over 3.5 goals	21%	4.73
Both teams to score	48%	2.07
Moreirense or Draw	60%	1.68
Gil Vicente or Draw	70%	1.43
Moreirense to win and Over 2.5	15%	6.53
Gil Vicente to win and Over 2.5	21%	4.70
Moreirense clean sheet	28%	3.60
Gil Vicente clean sheet	34%	2.92

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.8%

0-111.4%

0-010.3%

1-09.4%

1-28.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?

Our prediction for Moreirense vs Gil Vicente is Gil Vicente to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 0-0. We expect Moreirense to score 1.1 goals and Gil Vicente 1.3.

Will both teams score in Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?

Both teams to score has a 48% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Moreirense last 20 games and 11 of Gil Vicente last 20.

How are Moreirense playing?

How are Gil Vicente playing?

What happened when Moreirense and Gil Vicente last met?

It ended Moreirense 1, Gil Vicente 2. In the last 1 meeting Moreirense won 0 and Gil Vicente won 1.

What is the best bet for Moreirense vs Gil Vicente?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Moreirense against Gil Vicente. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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