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Predictions › United Kingdom › Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian
Scottish PremiershipSun 25 Oct, 14:00 United Kingdom time

Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian prediction

Fir Park

MotherwellHome
1.25 : 1.27
expected goals
Heart of MidlothianAway
35%Motherwell
28%Draw
36%Hearts
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1/3

Quick answer

Our prediction for Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian is Heart of Midlothian to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

Prediction
Heart of Midlothian to win
Chance
36%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Motherwell 1.3, Heart of Midlothian 1.3
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1/3
Both teams to score
52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
75% chanceFair price 1/32 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 13/21 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Motherwell 35%, the draw 28% and Heart of Midlothian 36%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Motherwell took 3 points from their last 5 games and Heart of Midlothian took 10 from 5. Heart of Midlothian come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Motherwell won 2 of their last 9 games at home. Heart of Midlothian won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Motherwell score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.6. Heart of Midlothian score 1.9 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Motherwell games and 14 of Heart of Midlothian games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Motherwell won 0 and Heart of Midlothian won 1 with 2 draws. The last one ended Motherwell 1, Heart of Midlothian 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Motherwellrecent form-3%
  • Heartsrecent form+1%
Motherwell form D L L L WHearts form D D L W WHome edge in this league 25% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian: Heart of Midlothian shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Motherwell host Heart of Midlothian in the Scottish Premiership on Sun 25 Oct, 14:00 at Fir Park. Our prediction for Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian is Heart of Midlothian to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

Motherwell form

Motherwell have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

Heart of Midlothian form

Heart of Midlothian have 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Motherwell won 0, Heart of Midlothian won 1 and 2 games ended level. Last time out it finished Motherwell 1, Heart of Midlothian 1.

Our call

We expect Motherwell to score about 1.3 goals and Heart of Midlothian about 1.3. That points to Heart of Midlothian to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 13/2.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

MotherwellHearts
Games played2020
Wins612
Draws43
Losses105
Goals scored2838
Goals conceded3122
Scored per game1.41.9
Conceded per game1.61.1
Home record2W 3D 4L10W 0D 0L
Away record4W 1D 6L2W 3D 5L
Clean sheets30%30%
Both teams scored50%65%
Over 2.5 goals60%70%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals72%2/5
Over 2.5 goals46%6/5
Over 3.5 goals25%3/1
Both teams to score52%10/11
Motherwell or Draw64%4/7
Heart of Midlothian or Draw65%8/15
Motherwell to win and Over 2.520%4/1
Heart of Midlothian to win and Over 2.520%4/1
Motherwell clean sheet28%13/5
Heart of Midlothian clean sheet29%5/2

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.6%
0-19.5%
1-09.3%
0-08.9%
1-28.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian?

Our prediction for Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian is Heart of Midlothian to win, with a 36% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1/3.

What is the score prediction for Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-0. We expect Motherwell to score 1.3 goals and Heart of Midlothian 1.3.

Will both teams score in Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Motherwell last 20 games and 13 of Heart of Midlothian last 20.

How are Motherwell playing?

Motherwell have 6 wins, 4 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 28 goals scored and 31 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, L, W, newest first.

How are Heart of Midlothian playing?

Heart of Midlothian have 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 22 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Motherwell and Heart of Midlothian last met?

It ended Motherwell 1, Heart of Midlothian 1. In the last 3 meetings Motherwell won 0 and Heart of Midlothian won 1.

What is the best bet for Motherwell vs Heart of Midlothian?

Under 3.5 goals at 1/3, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Motherwell against Hearts. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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