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Predictions › Uruguay › Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado
Uruguayan Primera DivisionMon 19 Oct, 23:00 Uruguay time

Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado prediction

Gran Parque Central

NacionalHome
1.32 : 1.06
expected goals
Deportivo MaldonadoAway
42%Nacional
29%Draw
29%Maldonado
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado is Nacional to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Nacional to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Nacional 1.3, Deportivo Maldonado 1.1
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
49%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.291 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Nacional 42%, the draw 29% and Deportivo Maldonado 29%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Nacional took 11 points from their last 5 games and Deportivo Maldonado took 10 from 5. Nacional come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Nacional won 7 of their last 12 games at home. Deportivo Maldonado won 4 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Nacional score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.0. Deportivo Maldonado score 1.5 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 9 of Nacional games and 7 of Deportivo Maldonado games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Nacional won 0 and Deportivo Maldonado won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Deportivo Maldonado 3, Nacional 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Nacionalrecent form+4%
  • Maldonadorecent form+3%
  • Maldonadorest between games-5%
Nacional form W W W D DMaldonado form D W W W LHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado: Nacional shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Nacional host Deportivo Maldonado in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Mon 19 Oct, 23:00 at Gran Parque Central. Our prediction for Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado is Nacional to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Nacional form

Nacional have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, D, newest first.

Deportivo Maldonado form

Deportivo Maldonado have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 15 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Nacional won 0, Deportivo Maldonado won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Deportivo Maldonado 3, Nacional 0.

Our call

We expect Nacional to score about 1.3 goals and Deportivo Maldonado about 1.1. That points to Nacional to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.29.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

NacionalMaldonado
Games played2020
Wins1010
Draws56
Losses54
Goals scored2230
Goals conceded2015
Scored per game1.11.5
Conceded per game1.00.8
Home record7W 3D 2L6W 5D 1L
Away record3W 2D 3L4W 1D 3L
Clean sheets45%45%
Both teams scored40%40%
Over 2.5 goals45%35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals70%1.44
Over 2.5 goals43%2.34
Over 3.5 goals22%4.58
Both teams to score49%2.05
Nacional or Draw71%1.41
Deportivo Maldonado or Draw58%1.72
Nacional to win and Over 2.522%4.48
Deportivo Maldonado to win and Over 2.515%6.65
Nacional clean sheet34%2.90
Deportivo Maldonado clean sheet27%3.75

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.7%
1-011.4%
0-010.0%
0-19.0%
2-18.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Our prediction for Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado is Nacional to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Nacional to score 1.3 goals and Deportivo Maldonado 1.1.

Will both teams score in Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Both teams to score has a 49% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Nacional last 20 games and 8 of Deportivo Maldonado last 20.

How are Nacional playing?

Nacional have 10 wins, 5 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, D, D, newest first.

How are Deportivo Maldonado playing?

Deportivo Maldonado have 10 wins, 6 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 30 goals scored and 15 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, W, L, newest first.

What happened when Nacional and Deportivo Maldonado last met?

It ended Deportivo Maldonado 3, Nacional 0. In the last 2 meetings Nacional won 0 and Deportivo Maldonado won 2.

What is the best bet for Nacional vs Deportivo Maldonado?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Nacional against Maldonado. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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