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Predictions › Uruguay › Nacional vs Liverpool
Uruguayan Primera DivisionSun 25 Oct, 22:30 Uruguay time

Nacional vs Liverpool prediction

Gran Parque Central

NacionalHome
1.32 : 1.16
expected goals
LiverpoolAway
40%Nacional
29%Draw
32%Liverpool
Eagle safe pickUnder 3.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Nacional vs Liverpool is Nacional to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Nacional to win
Chance
40%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Nacional 1.3, Liverpool 1.2
Best bet
Under 3.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
51%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Under 3.5 goals
76% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
14% chanceFair price 7.341 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Nacional 40%, the draw 29% and Liverpool 32%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Nacional took 13 points from their last 5 games and Liverpool took 8 from 5. Nacional come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Nacional won 7 of their last 12 games at home. Liverpool won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Nacional score 1.1 goals a game and let in 0.8. Liverpool score 1.4 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Nacional games and 9 of Liverpool games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Nacional won 2 and Liverpool won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Liverpool 1, Nacional 3.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Under 3.5 goals has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Nacionalrecent form+4%
  • Liverpoolrecent form+1%
Nacional form D W W W DLiverpool form D W W D LHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Nacional vs Liverpool: Nacional shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Nacional host Liverpool in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Sun 25 Oct, 22:30 at Gran Parque Central. Our prediction for Nacional vs Liverpool is Nacional to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

Nacional form

Nacional have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, D, newest first.

Liverpool form

Liverpool have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 15 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Nacional won 2, Liverpool won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Liverpool 1, Nacional 3.

Our call

We expect Nacional to score about 1.3 goals and Liverpool about 1.2. That points to Nacional to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.34.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

NacionalLiverpool
Games played2020
Wins119
Draws57
Losses44
Goals scored2327
Goals conceded1715
Scored per game1.11.4
Conceded per game0.80.8
Home record7W 3D 2L5W 3D 1L
Away record4W 2D 2L4W 4D 3L
Clean sheets50%50%
Both teams scored40%45%
Over 2.5 goals40%45%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals71%1.40
Over 2.5 goals45%2.23
Over 3.5 goals24%4.23
Both teams to score51%1.96
Nacional or Draw68%1.47
Liverpool or Draw60%1.65
Nacional to win and Over 2.522%4.57
Liverpool to win and Over 2.517%5.81
Nacional clean sheet32%3.17
Liverpool clean sheet27%3.73

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-113.6%
1-010.3%
0-09.2%
0-19.0%
2-18.5%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Nacional vs Liverpool?

Our prediction for Nacional vs Liverpool is Nacional to win, with a 40% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Under 3.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Nacional vs Liverpool?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-0 and 0-0. We expect Nacional to score 1.3 goals and Liverpool 1.2.

Will both teams score in Nacional vs Liverpool?

Both teams to score has a 51% chance. Both sides scored in 8 of Nacional last 20 games and 9 of Liverpool last 20.

How are Nacional playing?

Nacional have 11 wins, 5 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 23 goals scored and 17 conceded. At home they have 7 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read W, W, W, W, D, newest first.

How are Liverpool playing?

Liverpool have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 27 goals scored and 15 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, W, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Nacional and Liverpool last met?

It ended Liverpool 1, Nacional 3. In the last 2 meetings Nacional won 2 and Liverpool won 0.

What is the best bet for Nacional vs Liverpool?

Under 3.5 goals at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Nacional against Liverpool. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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