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Predictions › Uruguay › Nacional vs Montevideo City Torque
Uruguayan Primera DivisionMon 5 Oct, 23:00 Uruguay time

Nacional vs Montevideo City Torque prediction

Gran Parque Central

NacionalHome
1.05 : 1.54
expected goals
Montevideo City TorqueAway
25%Nacional
27%Draw
48%MC Torque
Eagle safe pickMontevideo City Torque or Draw
1.33

Quick answer

Our prediction for Nacional vs Montevideo City Torque is Montevideo City Torque to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Montevideo City Torque or Draw at 1.33.

Prediction
Montevideo City Torque to win
Chance
48%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Nacional 1.1, Montevideo City Torque 1.5
Best bet
Montevideo City Torque or Draw at 1.33
Both teams to score
52%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Montevideo City Torque or Draw
75% chanceFair price 1.332 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Montevideo City Torque to win and Over 2.5
27% chanceFair price 3.691 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Nacional 25%, the draw 27% and Montevideo City Torque 48%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Nacional took 11 points from their last 5 games and Montevideo City Torque took 12 from 5. Montevideo City Torque come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Nacional won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Montevideo City Torque won 6 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Nacional score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.1. Montevideo City Torque score 1.9 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Nacional games and 12 of Montevideo City Torque games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Nacional won 2 and Montevideo City Torque won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Montevideo City Torque 1, Nacional 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Montevideo City Torque or Draw has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Nacionalrecent form+4%
  • MC Torquerecent form+1%
  • Nacionalrest between games-5%
  • MC Torquerest between games-5%
Nacional form W W D D WMC Torque form L W W W LHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Nacional vs Montevideo City Torque: Montevideo City Torque are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Nacional host Montevideo City Torque in the Uruguayan Primera Division on Mon 5 Oct, 23:00 at Gran Parque Central. Our prediction for Nacional vs Montevideo City Torque is Montevideo City Torque to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Montevideo City Torque or Draw at 1.33.

Nacional form

Nacional have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, W, newest first.

Montevideo City Torque form

Montevideo City Torque have 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Nacional won 2, Montevideo City Torque won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Montevideo City Torque 1, Nacional 2.

Our call

We expect Nacional to score about 1.1 goals and Montevideo City Torque about 1.5. That points to Montevideo City Torque to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Montevideo City Torque or Draw at 1.33. Our bold bet is Montevideo City Torque to win and Over 2.5 at 3.69.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

NacionalMC Torque
Games played2020
Wins912
Draws53
Losses65
Goals scored2238
Goals conceded2324
Scored per game1.11.9
Conceded per game1.11.2
Home record6W 3D 2L6W 0D 5L
Away record3W 2D 4L6W 3D 0L
Clean sheets40%10%
Both teams scored45%75%
Over 2.5 goals50%60%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals74%1.36
Over 2.5 goals48%2.09
Over 3.5 goals26%3.83
Both teams to score52%1.93
Nacional or Draw52%1.92
Montevideo City Torque or Draw75%1.33
Nacional to win and Over 2.514%7.27
Montevideo City Torque to win and Over 2.528%3.54
Nacional clean sheet21%4.67
Montevideo City Torque clean sheet35%2.85

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.9%
0-110.9%
1-29.3%
0-28.9%
0-08.3%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Nacional vs Montevideo City Torque?

Our prediction for Nacional vs Montevideo City Torque is Montevideo City Torque to win, with a 48% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Montevideo City Torque or Draw at 1.33.

What is the score prediction for Nacional vs Montevideo City Torque?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 0-1 and 1-2. We expect Nacional to score 1.1 goals and Montevideo City Torque 1.5.

Will both teams score in Nacional vs Montevideo City Torque?

Both teams to score has a 52% chance. Both sides scored in 9 of Nacional last 20 games and 15 of Montevideo City Torque last 20.

How are Nacional playing?

Nacional have 9 wins, 5 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 23 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, W, newest first.

How are Montevideo City Torque playing?

Montevideo City Torque have 12 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 38 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Nacional and Montevideo City Torque last met?

It ended Montevideo City Torque 1, Nacional 2. In the last 2 meetings Nacional won 2 and Montevideo City Torque won 0.

What is the best bet for Nacional vs Montevideo City Torque?

Montevideo City Torque or Draw at 1.33, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Nacional against MC Torque. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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