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Predictions › Japan › Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka
J1 LeagueWed 21 Oct, 10:00 Japan time

Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka prediction

Toyota Stadium (Japan)

Nagoya GrampusHome
1.65 : 1.28
expected goals
Cerezo OsakaAway
45%Nagoya
26%Draw
29%Cerezo Osaka
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka is Nagoya Grampus to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction
Nagoya Grampus to win
Chance
45%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Nagoya Grampus 1.6, Cerezo Osaka 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score
59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.292 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Nagoya Grampus to win and Over 2.5
28% chanceFair price 3.561 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Nagoya Grampus 45%, the draw 26% and Cerezo Osaka 29%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Nagoya Grampus took 3 points from their last 5 games and Cerezo Osaka took 6 from 5. Cerezo Osaka come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Nagoya Grampus won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Cerezo Osaka won 3 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Nagoya Grampus score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.9. Cerezo Osaka score 1.6 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Nagoya Grampus games and 10 of Cerezo Osaka games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 3 meetings, Nagoya Grampus won 2 and Cerezo Osaka won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended Cerezo Osaka 6, Nagoya Grampus 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Nagoyarecent form-6%
  • Nagoyarest between games-5%
  • Cerezo Osakarest between games-5%
Nagoya form D L L L LCerezo Osaka form D D L D WHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka: Nagoya Grampus are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Nagoya Grampus host Cerezo Osaka in the J1 League on Wed 21 Oct, 10:00 at Toyota Stadium (Japan). Our prediction for Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka is Nagoya Grampus to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Nagoya Grampus form

Nagoya Grampus have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Cerezo Osaka form

Cerezo Osaka have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 3 times in our records. Nagoya Grampus won 2, Cerezo Osaka won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Cerezo Osaka 6, Nagoya Grampus 1.

Our call

We expect Nagoya Grampus to score about 1.6 goals and Cerezo Osaka about 1.3. That points to Nagoya Grampus to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Nagoya Grampus to win and Over 2.5 at 3.56.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

NagoyaCerezo Osaka
Games played2020
Wins79
Draws37
Losses104
Goals scored2931
Goals conceded3724
Scored per game1.41.6
Conceded per game1.91.2
Home record4W 3D 2L6W 4D 0L
Away record3W 0D 8L3W 3D 4L
Clean sheets10%35%
Both teams scored70%55%
Over 2.5 goals75%50%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1.25
Over 2.5 goals56%1.78
Over 3.5 goals34%2.96
Both teams to score59%1.69
Nagoya Grampus or Draw71%1.41
Cerezo Osaka or Draw55%1.83
Nagoya Grampus to win and Over 2.530%3.34
Cerezo Osaka to win and Over 2.519%5.38
Nagoya Grampus clean sheet28%3.60
Cerezo Osaka clean sheet19%5.20

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.0%
2-19.3%
1-08.1%
2-07.3%
1-27.2%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?

Our prediction for Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka is Nagoya Grampus to win, with a 45% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Nagoya Grampus to score 1.6 goals and Cerezo Osaka 1.3.

Will both teams score in Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Nagoya Grampus last 20 games and 11 of Cerezo Osaka last 20.

How are Nagoya Grampus playing?

Nagoya Grampus have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Cerezo Osaka playing?

Cerezo Osaka have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 3 wins, 3 draws and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, D, W, newest first.

What happened when Nagoya Grampus and Cerezo Osaka last met?

It ended Cerezo Osaka 6, Nagoya Grampus 1. In the last 3 meetings Nagoya Grampus won 2 and Cerezo Osaka won 1.

What is the best bet for Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.29, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Nagoya against Cerezo Osaka. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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