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Predictions › Japan › Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos
J1 LeagueSun 25 Oct, 05:00 Japan time

Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos prediction

Toyota Stadium (Japan)

Nagoya GrampusHome
1.26 : 1.70
expected goals
Yokohama F. MarinosAway
28%Nagoya
25%Draw
47%Yokohama FM
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.28

Quick answer

Our prediction for Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos is Yokohama F. Marinos to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Prediction
Yokohama F. Marinos to win
Chance
47%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Nagoya Grampus 1.3, Yokohama F. Marinos 1.7
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.28
Both teams to score
59%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.282 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Yokohama F. Marinos to win and Over 2.5
29% chanceFair price 3.411 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Nagoya Grampus 28%, the draw 25% and Yokohama F. Marinos 47%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Nagoya Grampus took 3 points from their last 5 games and Yokohama F. Marinos took 9 from 5. Yokohama F. Marinos come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Nagoya Grampus won 4 of their last 9 games at home. Yokohama F. Marinos won 5 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Nagoya Grampus score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.9. Yokohama F. Marinos score 1.6 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 15 of Nagoya Grampus games and 8 of Yokohama F. Marinos games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Nagoyarecent form-6%
  • Yokohama FMrecent form+3%
Nagoya form D L L L LYokohama FM form D W D W DHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos: Yokohama F. Marinos are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Nagoya Grampus host Yokohama F. Marinos in the J1 League on Sun 25 Oct, 05:00 at Toyota Stadium (Japan). Our prediction for Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos is Yokohama F. Marinos to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

Nagoya Grampus form

Nagoya Grampus have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, L, newest first.

Yokohama F. Marinos form

Yokohama F. Marinos have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, D, newest first.

Our call

We expect Nagoya Grampus to score about 1.3 goals and Yokohama F. Marinos about 1.7. That points to Yokohama F. Marinos to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28. Our bold bet is Yokohama F. Marinos to win and Over 2.5 at 3.41.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

NagoyaYokohama FM
Games played2020
Wins78
Draws36
Losses106
Goals scored2933
Goals conceded3724
Scored per game1.41.6
Conceded per game1.91.2
Home record4W 3D 2L3W 3D 4L
Away record3W 0D 8L5W 3D 2L
Clean sheets10%35%
Both teams scored70%55%
Over 2.5 goals75%40%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals80%1.25
Over 2.5 goals57%1.77
Over 3.5 goals34%2.92
Both teams to score59%1.69
Nagoya Grampus or Draw53%1.89
Yokohama F. Marinos or Draw72%1.38
Nagoya Grampus to win and Over 2.518%5.65
Yokohama F. Marinos to win and Over 2.531%3.18
Nagoya Grampus clean sheet18%5.46
Yokohama F. Marinos clean sheet28%3.51

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.8%
1-29.4%
0-18.2%
0-27.5%
2-17.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos?

Our prediction for Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos is Yokohama F. Marinos to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.28.

What is the score prediction for Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Nagoya Grampus to score 1.3 goals and Yokohama F. Marinos 1.7.

Will both teams score in Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos?

Both teams to score has a 59% chance. Both sides scored in 14 of Nagoya Grampus last 20 games and 11 of Yokohama F. Marinos last 20.

How are Nagoya Grampus playing?

Nagoya Grampus have 7 wins, 3 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 37 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, L, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Yokohama F. Marinos playing?

Yokohama F. Marinos have 8 wins, 6 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, W, D, newest first.

What is the best bet for Nagoya Grampus vs Yokohama F. Marinos?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.28, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Nagoya against Yokohama FM. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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