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Predictions › Italy › Napoli vs Frosinone
Serie ASat 10 Oct, 18:45 Italy time

Napoli vs Frosinone prediction

Stadio Diego Armando Maradona

NapoliHome
2.11 : 1.03
expected goals
FrosinoneAway
62%Napoli
21%Draw
17%Frosinone
Eagle safe pickNapoli or Draw
1.24

Quick answer

Our prediction for Napoli vs Frosinone is Napoli to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Napoli or Draw at 1.24.

Prediction
Napoli to win
Chance
62%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Napoli 2.1, Frosinone 1.0
Best bet
Napoli or Draw at 1.24
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Napoli or Draw
80% chanceFair price 1.242 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Napoli to win and Over 2.5
40% chanceFair price 2.481 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Napoli 62%, the draw 21% and Frosinone 17%. The bookmakers agree and make Napoli the favourite at 1.42.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Napoli took 4 points from their last 5 games and Frosinone took 10 from 5. Frosinone come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Napoli won 6 of their last 11 games at home. Frosinone won 6 of their last 9 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Napoli score 1.4 goals a game and let in 1.0. Frosinone score 2.2 and let in 0.8. Over 2.5 goals landed in 10 of Napoli games and 13 of Frosinone games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Napoli or Draw has a 80% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Napolirecent form-3%
  • Frosinonerecent form+3%
Napoli form D W L L LFrosinone form W D W L WHome edge in this league 11% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Napoli vs Frosinone: Napoli are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Napoli host Frosinone in the Serie A on Sat 10 Oct, 18:45 at Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. Our prediction for Napoli vs Frosinone is Napoli to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Napoli or Draw at 1.24.

Napoli form

Napoli have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, L, newest first.

Frosinone form

Frosinone have 13 wins, 6 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect Napoli to score about 2.1 goals and Frosinone about 1.0. That points to Napoli to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Napoli or Draw at 1.24. Our bold bet is Napoli to win and Over 2.5 at 2.48.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

NapoliFrosinone
Games played2020
Wins1013
Draws46
Losses61
Goals scored2944
Goals conceded2017
Scored per game1.42.2
Conceded per game1.00.8
Home record6W 1D 4L7W 3D 1L
Away record4W 3D 2L6W 3D 0L
Clean sheets40%40%
Both teams scored50%55%
Over 2.5 goals50%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Napoli to win59%1.691.42-16.2%
A Draw21%4.774.50-5.6%
Frosinone to win17%5.895.75-2.3%
Over 3.5 goals38%2.642.20-16.6%
Under 3.5 goals56%1.801.59-11.6%
Napoli -1.539%2.542.05-19.4%
Frosinone +1.554%1.841.61-12.8%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals83%1.21
Over 2.5 goals61%1.64
Over 3.5 goals39%2.59
Both teams to score57%1.75
Napoli or Draw83%1.21
Frosinone or Draw38%2.60
Napoli to win and Over 2.543%2.30
Frosinone to win and Over 2.511%9.17
Napoli clean sheet36%2.81
Frosinone clean sheet12%8.28

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-19.9%
2-19.9%
2-09.6%
1-08.5%
3-17.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Napoli vs Frosinone?

Our prediction for Napoli vs Frosinone is Napoli to win, with a 62% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Napoli or Draw at 1.24.

What is the score prediction for Napoli vs Frosinone?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 2-0. We expect Napoli to score 2.1 goals and Frosinone 1.0.

Will both teams score in Napoli vs Frosinone?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 10 of Napoli last 20 games and 11 of Frosinone last 20.

How are Napoli playing?

Napoli have 10 wins, 4 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 29 goals scored and 20 conceded. At home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, L, L, L, newest first.

How are Frosinone playing?

Frosinone have 13 wins, 6 draws and 1 loss in their last 20 games, with 44 goals scored and 17 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 3 draws and 0 losses from 9. Their last 5 results read W, D, W, W, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for Napoli vs Frosinone?

Napoli or Draw at 1.24, with a 80% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Napoli against Frosinone. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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