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Predictions › United States › Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons
College FootballSat 3 Oct, 12:00 United States time

Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons prediction

Falcon Stadium

Navy MidshipmenAway
23.0 : 25.4
projected points
Air Force FalconsHome
46%Navy
54%Air Force
Eagle safe pickOver 37.5 points
-306

Quick answer

Our prediction for Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons is Air Force Falcons to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Navy Midshipmen 23.0 and Air Force Falcons 25.4. Our best bet is Over 37.5 points at -306.

Prediction
Air Force Falcons to win
Chance
54%
Projected score
Navy Midshipmen 23, Air Force Falcons 25
Projected total
48.4 points
Best bet
Over 37.5 points at -306

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One injury, one turnover or one late score can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 37.5 points
75% chanceFair price -3062 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Air Force Falcons 54% and Navy Midshipmen 46%. The bookmakers agree and make Air Force Falcons the favourite at -148.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Air Force Falcons won 3 of their last 5 and Navy Midshipmen won 3 of their last 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Air Force Falcons won 2 of their last 7 games at home. Navy Midshipmen won 4 of their last 8 on the road.

  4. 4
    Scoring

    Air Force Falcons score 29.4 points a game and let in 30.1. Navy Midshipmen score 29.4 and let in 26.5. Their recent games average 59.5 and 55.9 points in total, and the market line is 47.5.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Air Force Falcons won 0 and Navy Midshipmen won 1. The last one ended Navy Midshipmen 34, Air Force Falcons 31.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 37.5 points has a 75% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Air Forcerest between games-5%
  • Navyrest between games-2%
Corrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons: Air Force Falcons shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Air Force Falcons host Navy Midshipmen in the College Football on Sat 3 Oct, 12:00 at Falcon Stadium. Our prediction for Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons is Air Force Falcons to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Navy Midshipmen 23.0 and Air Force Falcons 25.4. Our best bet is Over 37.5 points at -306.

Air Force Falcons form

Air Force Falcons have 5 wins and 9 losses in their last 14 games, with 411 points scored and 422 conceded. At home they have 2 wins and 5 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Navy Midshipmen form

Navy Midshipmen have 10 wins and 4 losses in their last 14 games, with 411 points scored and 371 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Air Force Falcons won 0, Navy Midshipmen won 1. Last time out it finished Navy Midshipmen 34, Air Force Falcons 31.

Our call

We expect Navy Midshipmen to score about 23.0 points and Air Force Falcons about 25.4. That points to Air Force Falcons to win. Our safest bet is Over 37.5 points at -306.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 14 games in all competitions.

Air ForceNavy
Games played1414
Wins510
Losses94
Points scored411411
Points conceded422371
Scored per game29.429.4
Conceded per game30.126.5
Home record2W 5L6W 0L
Away record3W 4L4W 4L

Note: W is a win and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against Draft Kings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
Air Force to win54%-116-148-9.9%
Navy to win40%+150+124-10.4%
Air Force -2.547%+114-120-14.5%
Navy +2.547%+112+100-5.8%
Over 47.5 points49%+103-108-5.3%
Under 47.5 points45%+124-112-15.6%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Spread and total at every line

Air Force spreadCoversFair
Air Force -9.533%+204
Air Force -5.542%+136
Air Force -2.550%+101
Air Force +0.557%-134
Air Force +4.567%-200
Total pointsOverUnder
41.567%33%
45.557%43%
48.550%50%
51.542%58%
55.533%67%

Note: A spread gives one team a head start. Air Force +3.5 wins if Air Force win or lose by 3 or fewer. If the result lands exactly on the line, your stake comes back.

Questions people ask

Who will win Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons?

Our prediction for Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons is Air Force Falcons to win, with a 54% chance, but it is a close call. We project Navy Midshipmen 23.0 and Air Force Falcons 25.4. Our best bet is Over 37.5 points at -306.

What is the projected score for Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons?

We project Navy Midshipmen 23.0 and Air Force Falcons 25.4, about 48.4 points in total.

How are Air Force Falcons playing?

Air Force Falcons have 5 wins and 9 losses in their last 14 games, with 411 points scored and 422 conceded. At home they have 2 wins and 5 losses from 7. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, L, newest first.

How are Navy Midshipmen playing?

Navy Midshipmen have 10 wins and 4 losses in their last 14 games, with 411 points scored and 371 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins and 4 losses from 8. Their last 5 results read L, L, W, W, W, newest first.

What happened when Air Force Falcons and Navy Midshipmen last met?

It ended Navy Midshipmen 34, Air Force Falcons 31. In the last 1 meeting Air Force Falcons won 0 and Navy Midshipmen won 1.

What is the best bet for Navy Midshipmen vs Air Force Falcons?

Over 37.5 points at -306, with a 75% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Air Force against Navy. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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