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Predictions › Netherlands › NEC Nijmegen vs FC Groningen
EredivisieSun 25 Oct, 13:30 Netherlands time

NEC Nijmegen vs FC Groningen prediction

Goffertstadion

NEC NijmegenHome
1.61 : 1.85
expected goals
FC GroningenAway
33%NEC
23%Draw
43%FC Groningen
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.18

Quick answer

Our prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs FC Groningen is FC Groningen to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

Prediction
FC Groningen to win
Chance
43%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
NEC Nijmegen 1.6, FC Groningen 1.9
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.18
Both teams to score
68%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
85% chanceFair price 1.182 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

FC Groningen to win and Over 2.5
31% chanceFair price 3.241 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives NEC Nijmegen 33%, the draw 23% and FC Groningen 43%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    NEC Nijmegen took 3 points from their last 5 games and FC Groningen took 8 from 5. FC Groningen come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    NEC Nijmegen won 2 of their last 10 games at home. FC Groningen won 4 of their last 11 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    NEC Nijmegen score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.6. FC Groningen score 1.9 and let in 1.6. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of NEC Nijmegen games and 15 of FC Groningen games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, NEC Nijmegen won 1 and FC Groningen won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended FC Groningen 2, NEC Nijmegen 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 85% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • NECrecent form-3%
NEC form D D L L DFC Groningen form D W D D LHome edge in this league 17% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

NEC Nijmegen vs FC Groningen: FC Groningen shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

NEC Nijmegen host FC Groningen in the Eredivisie on Sun 25 Oct, 13:30 at Goffertstadion. Our prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs FC Groningen is FC Groningen to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

NEC Nijmegen form

NEC Nijmegen have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, D, newest first.

FC Groningen form

FC Groningen have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. NEC Nijmegen won 1, FC Groningen won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished FC Groningen 2, NEC Nijmegen 1.

Our call

We expect NEC Nijmegen to score about 1.6 goals and FC Groningen about 1.9. That points to FC Groningen to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18. Our bold bet is FC Groningen to win and Over 2.5 at 3.24.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

NECFC Groningen
Games played2020
Wins69
Draws84
Losses67
Goals scored3239
Goals conceded3331
Scored per game1.61.9
Conceded per game1.61.6
Home record2W 5D 3L5W 2D 2L
Away record4W 3D 3L4W 2D 5L
Clean sheets10%20%
Both teams scored80%75%
Over 2.5 goals65%75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals87%1.16
Over 2.5 goals67%1.49
Over 3.5 goals46%2.20
Both teams to score68%1.47
NEC Nijmegen or Draw57%1.76
FC Groningen or Draw67%1.50
NEC Nijmegen to win and Over 2.525%4.03
FC Groningen to win and Over 2.533%3.07
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet16%6.37
FC Groningen clean sheet20%5.01

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-19.9%
1-28.7%
2-17.5%
2-27.0%
0-25.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs FC Groningen?

Our prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs FC Groningen is FC Groningen to win, with a 43% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.18.

What is the score prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs FC Groningen?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect NEC Nijmegen to score 1.6 goals and FC Groningen 1.9.

Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs FC Groningen?

Both teams to score has a 68% chance. Both sides scored in 16 of NEC Nijmegen last 20 games and 15 of FC Groningen last 20.

How are NEC Nijmegen playing?

NEC Nijmegen have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, D, L, L, D, newest first.

How are FC Groningen playing?

FC Groningen have 9 wins, 4 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 39 goals scored and 31 conceded. Away from home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read W, W, D, D, L, newest first.

What happened when NEC Nijmegen and FC Groningen last met?

It ended FC Groningen 2, NEC Nijmegen 1. In the last 2 meetings NEC Nijmegen won 1 and FC Groningen won 1.

What is the best bet for NEC Nijmegen vs FC Groningen?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.18, with a 85% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in NEC against FC Groningen. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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