Predictions › Netherlands › NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard

EredivisieSun 18 Oct, 18:00 Netherlands time

NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard prediction

Goffertstadion

NEC NijmegenHome

1.70 : 1.74

expected goals

Fortuna SittardAway

37%NEC

24%Draw

39%Fortuna

Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals

1.19

Quick answer

Our prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard is Fortuna Sittard to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

Prediction: Fortuna Sittard to win
Chance: 39%
Most likely score: 1-1
Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 1.7, Fortuna Sittard 1.7
Best bet: Over 1.5 goals at 1.19
Both teams to score: 68%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals

84% chanceFair price 1.192 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

Fortuna Sittard to win and Over 2.5

29% chanceFair price 3.491 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives NEC Nijmegen 37%, the draw 24% and Fortuna Sittard 39%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.
2
Recent form
NEC Nijmegen took 2 points from their last 5 games and Fortuna Sittard took 9 from 5. Fortuna Sittard come in with the better run.
3
Home and away
NEC Nijmegen won 2 of their last 10 games at home. Fortuna Sittard won 5 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
NEC Nijmegen score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.6. Fortuna Sittard score 1.6 and let in 2.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of NEC Nijmegen games and 15 of Fortuna Sittard games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 1 meeting, NEC Nijmegen won 0 and Fortuna Sittard won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended NEC Nijmegen 2, Fortuna Sittard 3.
6
The safest bet
Over 1.5 goals has a 84% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

NECrecent form-4%
Fortunarecent form+1%

NEC form D L L D LFortuna form W L W W LHome edge in this league 18% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard: Fortuna Sittard shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

NEC Nijmegen host Fortuna Sittard in the Eredivisie on Sun 18 Oct, 18:00 at Goffertstadion. Our prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard is Fortuna Sittard to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

NEC Nijmegen form

NEC Nijmegen have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Fortuna Sittard form

Fortuna Sittard have 8 wins, 3 draws and 9 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 41 conceded. Away from home they have 5 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, W, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. NEC Nijmegen won 0, Fortuna Sittard won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished NEC Nijmegen 2, Fortuna Sittard 3.

Our call

We expect NEC Nijmegen to score about 1.7 goals and Fortuna Sittard about 1.7. That points to Fortuna Sittard to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19. Our bold bet is Fortuna Sittard to win and Over 2.5 at 3.49.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	NEC	Fortuna
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	8
Draws	8	3
Losses	6	9
Goals scored	32	31
Goals conceded	33	41
Scored per game	1.6	1.6
Conceded per game	1.6	2.0
Home record	2W 5D 3L	3W 2D 5L
Away record	4W 3D 3L	5W 1D 4L
Clean sheets	10%	5%
Both teams scored	80%	80%
Over 2.5 goals	65%	75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	86%	1.16
Over 2.5 goals	67%	1.50
Over 3.5 goals	45%	2.22
Both teams to score	68%	1.47
NEC Nijmegen or Draw	61%	1.64
Fortuna Sittard or Draw	63%	1.60
NEC Nijmegen to win and Over 2.5	28%	3.59
Fortuna Sittard to win and Over 2.5	29%	3.43
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet	18%	5.70
Fortuna Sittard clean sheet	18%	5.47

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-110.1%

1-28.3%

2-18.1%

2-27.0%

0-15.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?

Our prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard is Fortuna Sittard to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.19.

What is the score prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 2-1. We expect NEC Nijmegen to score 1.7 goals and Fortuna Sittard 1.7.

Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?

Both teams to score has a 68% chance. Both sides scored in 16 of NEC Nijmegen last 20 games and 16 of Fortuna Sittard last 20.

How are NEC Nijmegen playing?

How are Fortuna Sittard playing?

What happened when NEC Nijmegen and Fortuna Sittard last met?

It ended NEC Nijmegen 2, Fortuna Sittard 3. In the last 1 meeting NEC Nijmegen won 0 and Fortuna Sittard won 1.

What is the best bet for NEC Nijmegen vs Fortuna Sittard?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.19, with a 84% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in NEC against Fortuna. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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