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Predictions › Europa League › NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia
Europa LeagueThu 15 Oct, 19:00 UTC

NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia prediction

Goffertstadion

NEC NijmegenHome
1.72 : 1.15
expected goals
Levski SofiaAway
50%NEC
25%Draw
25%Levski Sofia
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.30

Quick answer

Our prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia is NEC Nijmegen to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

Prediction
NEC Nijmegen to win
Chance
50%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
NEC Nijmegen 1.7, Levski Sofia 1.1
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.30
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.302 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

NEC Nijmegen to win and Over 2.5
32% chanceFair price 3.151 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives NEC Nijmegen 50%, the draw 25% and Levski Sofia 25%. The bookmakers agree and make NEC Nijmegen the favourite at 1.87.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    NEC Nijmegen took 2 points from their last 5 games and Levski Sofia took 0 from 1. NEC Nijmegen come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Goals

    NEC Nijmegen score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.6. Levski Sofia score 0.0 and let in 1.0. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of NEC Nijmegen games and 0 of Levski Sofia games in that run.

  4. 4
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • NECrecent form-4%
NEC form D L L D LLevski Sofia form L L D W WHome edge in this league 24% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia: NEC Nijmegen are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

NEC Nijmegen host Levski Sofia in the Europa League on Thu 15 Oct, 19:00 at Goffertstadion. Our prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia is NEC Nijmegen to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

NEC Nijmegen form

NEC Nijmegen have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Levski Sofia form

Levski Sofia have 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss in their last 1 games, with 0 goals scored and 1 conceded. Their last 1 results read L, newest first.

Our call

We expect NEC Nijmegen to score about 1.7 goals and Levski Sofia about 1.1. That points to NEC Nijmegen to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30. Our bold bet is NEC Nijmegen to win and Over 2.5 at 3.15.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

NECLevski Sofia
Games played201
Wins60
Draws80
Losses61
Goals scored320
Goals conceded331
Scored per game1.60.0
Conceded per game1.61.0
Home record2W 5D 3L0W 0D 1L
Away record4W 3D 3Ln/a
Clean sheets10%0%
Both teams scored80%0%
Over 2.5 goals65%0%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
NEC Nijmegen to win47%2.121.87-11.6%
A Draw25%4.033.70-8.2%
Levski Sofia to win24%4.093.85-5.9%
Over 2.5 goals52%1.931.71-11.4%
Under 2.5 goals43%2.342.05-12.2%
NEC Nijmegen -0.548%2.071.77-14.7%
Levski Sofia +0.546%2.161.87-13.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals79%1.27
Over 2.5 goals55%1.83
Over 3.5 goals32%3.10
Both teams to score57%1.76
NEC Nijmegen or Draw75%1.33
Levski Sofia or Draw50%2.00
NEC Nijmegen to win and Over 2.533%3.08
Levski Sofia to win and Over 2.515%6.59
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet32%3.15
Levski Sofia clean sheet18%5.57

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.9%
2-19.6%
1-09.1%
2-08.4%
1-26.4%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?

Our prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia is NEC Nijmegen to win, with a 50% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.30.

What is the score prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect NEC Nijmegen to score 1.7 goals and Levski Sofia 1.1.

Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 16 of NEC Nijmegen last 20 games and 0 of Levski Sofia last 1.

How are NEC Nijmegen playing?

NEC Nijmegen have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 33 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 5 draws and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Levski Sofia playing?

Levski Sofia have 0 wins, 0 draws and 1 loss in their last 1 games, with 0 goals scored and 1 conceded. Their last 1 results read L, newest first.

What is the best bet for NEC Nijmegen vs Levski Sofia?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.30, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in NEC against Levski Sofia. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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