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Predictions › Europa League › NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia
Europa LeagueThu 5 Nov, 17:45 UTC

NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia prediction

Goffertstadion

NEC NijmegenHome
1.74 : 1.32
expected goals
Omonia NicosiaAway
47%NEC
25%Draw
29%Omonia
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.23

Quick answer

Our prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia is NEC Nijmegen to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

Prediction
NEC Nijmegen to win
Chance
47%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
NEC Nijmegen 1.7, Omonia Nicosia 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.23
Both teams to score
61%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
82% chanceFair price 1.232 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Omonia Nicosia to win
27% chancePrice 4.10+12.6% value2 units

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives NEC Nijmegen 47%, the draw 25% and Omonia Nicosia 29%. The bookmakers agree and make NEC Nijmegen the favourite at 1.74.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    NEC Nijmegen took 7 points from their last 5 games and Omonia Nicosia took 6 from 5. NEC Nijmegen come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    NEC Nijmegen won 1 of their last 11 games at home. Omonia Nicosia won 2 of their last 5 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    NEC Nijmegen score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.7. Omonia Nicosia score 1.0 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of NEC Nijmegen games and 3 of Omonia Nicosia games in that run.

  5. 5
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 82% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • NECrecent form+1%
  • Omoniarecent form+3%
  • NECrest between games-5%
NEC form D W D D DOmonia form D W W W LHome edge in this league 19% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia: NEC Nijmegen are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

NEC Nijmegen host Omonia Nicosia in the Europa League on Thu 5 Nov, 17:45 at Goffertstadion. Our prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia is NEC Nijmegen to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

NEC Nijmegen form

NEC Nijmegen have 5 wins, 10 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 8 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, D, D, newest first.

Omonia Nicosia form

Omonia Nicosia have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 11 games, with 11 goals scored and 12 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 5. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, L, newest first.

Our call

We expect NEC Nijmegen to score about 1.7 goals and Omonia Nicosia about 1.3. That points to NEC Nijmegen to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23. Our bold bet is Omonia Nicosia to win at 4.10.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

NECOmonia
Games played2011
Wins54
Draws102
Losses55
Goals scored3211
Goals conceded3412
Scored per game1.61.0
Conceded per game1.71.1
Home record1W 8D 2L2W 0D 4L
Away record4W 2D 3L2W 2D 1L
Clean sheets5%36%
Both teams scored85%36%
Over 2.5 goals65%27%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

BetOur chanceFairPriceValue
NEC Nijmegen to win45%2.241.74-22.4%
A Draw24%4.173.95-5.3%
Omonia Nicosia to win27%3.644.10+12.6%
Over 2.5 goals54%1.851.54-16.5%
Under 2.5 goals40%2.532.35-7.2%
NEC Nijmegen -0.548%2.071.67-19.7%
Omonia Nicosia +0.546%2.191.95-10.7%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals82%1.23
Over 2.5 goals59%1.70
Over 3.5 goals37%2.74
Both teams to score61%1.64
NEC Nijmegen or Draw71%1.40
Omonia Nicosia or Draw53%1.87
NEC Nijmegen to win and Over 2.532%3.13
Omonia Nicosia to win and Over 2.519%5.28
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet27%3.75
Omonia Nicosia clean sheet18%5.68

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.4%
2-19.4%
1-07.5%
1-27.1%
2-07.1%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia?

Our prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia is NEC Nijmegen to win, with a 47% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.23.

What is the score prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect NEC Nijmegen to score 1.7 goals and Omonia Nicosia 1.3.

Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia?

Both teams to score has a 61% chance. Both sides scored in 17 of NEC Nijmegen last 20 games and 4 of Omonia Nicosia last 11.

How are NEC Nijmegen playing?

NEC Nijmegen have 5 wins, 10 draws and 5 losses in their last 20 games, with 32 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 1 win, 8 draws and 2 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, W, D, D, D, newest first.

How are Omonia Nicosia playing?

Omonia Nicosia have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses in their last 11 games, with 11 goals scored and 12 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss from 5. Their last 5 results read L, W, W, L, L, newest first.

What is the best bet for NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.23, with a 82% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in NEC against Omonia. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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  • Prices move. The odds shown were read from a bookmaker feed and may already be different. Always check the price in your own account before you place anything.
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