Predictions › Netherlands › NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven

EredivisieSat 21 Nov, 15:30 Netherlands time

NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven prediction

Goffertstadion

NEC NijmegenHome

1.49 : 2.25

expected goals

PSV EindhovenAway

25%NEC

21%Draw

54%PSV

Eagle safe pickPSV Eindhoven or Draw

1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven is PSV Eindhoven to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is PSV Eindhoven or Draw at 1.31.

Prediction: PSV Eindhoven to win
Chance: 54%
Most likely score: 1-2
Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 1.5, PSV Eindhoven 2.3
Best bet: PSV Eindhoven or Draw at 1.31
Both teams to score: 70%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

PSV Eindhoven or Draw

76% chanceFair price 1.312 units

⚡

Eagle bold pick

PSV Eindhoven to win and Over 2.5

42% chanceFair price 2.401 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

1
What our numbers say
The model gives NEC Nijmegen 25%, the draw 21% and PSV Eindhoven 54%. The bookmakers agree and make PSV Eindhoven the favourite at 1.74.
2
Recent form
NEC Nijmegen took 10 points from their last 5 games and PSV Eindhoven took 10 from 5. Both sides come in with a similar run.
3
Home and away
NEC Nijmegen won 2 of their last 10 games at home. PSV Eindhoven won 6 of their last 10 on the road.
4
Goals
NEC Nijmegen score 1.6 goals a game and let in 1.8. PSV Eindhoven score 3.0 and let in 1.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 14 of NEC Nijmegen games and 15 of PSV Eindhoven games in that run.
5
Head to head
In the last 2 meetings, NEC Nijmegen won 1 and PSV Eindhoven won 1 with 0 draws. The last one ended PSV Eindhoven 2, NEC Nijmegen 3.
6
The safest bet
PSV Eindhoven or Draw has a 76% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.

NECrecent form+3%
PSVrecent form+3%

NEC form W W L D WPSV form W L W D WHome edge in this league 16% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven: PSV Eindhoven are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

NEC Nijmegen host PSV Eindhoven in the Eredivisie on Sat 21 Nov, 15:30 at Goffertstadion. Our prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven is PSV Eindhoven to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is PSV Eindhoven or Draw at 1.31.

NEC Nijmegen form

NEC Nijmegen have 6 wins, 8 draws and 6 losses in their last 20 games, with 33 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, W, L, D, W, newest first.

PSV Eindhoven form

PSV Eindhoven have 12 wins, 4 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 60 goals scored and 24 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, L, W, D, W, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. NEC Nijmegen won 1, PSV Eindhoven won 1 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished PSV Eindhoven 2, NEC Nijmegen 3.

Our call

We expect NEC Nijmegen to score about 1.5 goals and PSV Eindhoven about 2.3. That points to PSV Eindhoven to win, with 1-2 the most likely score. Our safest bet is PSV Eindhoven or Draw at 1.31. Our bold bet is PSV Eindhoven to win and Over 2.5 at 2.40.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

	NEC	PSV
Games played	20	20
Wins	6	12
Draws	8	4
Losses	6	4
Goals scored	33	60
Goals conceded	35	24
Scored per game	1.6	3.0
Conceded per game	1.8	1.2
Home record	2W 6D 2L	6W 3D 1L
Away record	4W 2D 4L	6W 1D 3L
Clean sheets	0%	15%
Both teams scored	85%	80%
Over 2.5 goals	70%	75%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Price check against DraftKings

Bet	Our chance	Fair	Price	Value
NEC Nijmegen to win	24%	4.17	3.65	-12.4%
A Draw	20%	4.93	4.20	-14.8%
PSV Eindhoven to win	50%	2.01	1.74	-13.4%
Over 3.5 goals	49%	2.06	1.71	-16.8%
Under 3.5 goals	45%	2.25	1.95	-13.1%
NEC Nijmegen +0.5	44%	2.30	1.95	-15.1%
PSV Eindhoven -0.5	50%	2.02	1.67	-17.4%

Note: Green value means the price pays more than our fair price. We only call it a value pick from 3% up, because small gaps can be noise.

Goals and other markets

Market	Chance	Fair price
Over 1.5 goals	89%	1.12
Over 2.5 goals	72%	1.39
Over 3.5 goals	51%	1.94
Both teams to score	70%	1.43
NEC Nijmegen or Draw	46%	2.19
PSV Eindhoven or Draw	75%	1.33
NEC Nijmegen to win and Over 2.5	19%	5.28
PSV Eindhoven to win and Over 2.5	44%	2.30
NEC Nijmegen clean sheet	11%	9.52
PSV Eindhoven clean sheet	23%	4.44

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-29.0%

1-18.4%

1-36.7%

2-26.7%

0-26.0%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?

Our prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven is PSV Eindhoven to win, with a 54% chance. The most likely score is 1-2. Our best bet is PSV Eindhoven or Draw at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?

1-2 is the most likely score, followed by 1-1 and 1-3. We expect NEC Nijmegen to score 1.5 goals and PSV Eindhoven 2.3.

Will both teams score in NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?

Both teams to score has a 70% chance. Both sides scored in 17 of NEC Nijmegen last 20 games and 16 of PSV Eindhoven last 20.

How are NEC Nijmegen playing?

How are PSV Eindhoven playing?

What happened when NEC Nijmegen and PSV Eindhoven last met?

It ended PSV Eindhoven 2, NEC Nijmegen 3. In the last 2 meetings NEC Nijmegen won 1 and PSV Eindhoven won 1.

What is the best bet for NEC Nijmegen vs PSV Eindhoven?

PSV Eindhoven or Draw at 1.31, with a 76% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in NEC against PSV. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
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