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Predictions › Mexico › Necaxa vs Atlas
Liga MXSat 17 Oct, 01:00 Mexico time

Necaxa vs Atlas prediction

Estadio Victoria

NecaxaHome
1.32 : 1.53
expected goals
AtlasAway
32%Necaxa
26%Draw
42%Atlas
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.31

Quick answer

Our prediction for Necaxa vs Atlas is Atlas to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Prediction
Atlas to win
Chance
42%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Necaxa 1.3, Atlas 1.5
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.31
Both teams to score
58%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
77% chanceFair price 1.312 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Atlas to win and Over 2.5
26% chanceFair price 3.771 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Necaxa 32%, the draw 26% and Atlas 42%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Necaxa took 1 point from their last 5 games and Atlas took 5 from 5. Atlas come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Necaxa won 4 of their last 11 games at home. Atlas won 6 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Necaxa score 1.1 goals a game and let in 1.7. Atlas score 1.1 and let in 1.3. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Necaxa games and 7 of Atlas games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Necaxa won 0 and Atlas won 2 with 0 draws. The last one ended Necaxa 0, Atlas 1.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 77% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Necaxarecent form-6%
  • Atlasrecent form-1%
Necaxa form L L L D LAtlas form W D L D LHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Necaxa vs Atlas: Atlas shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Necaxa host Atlas in the Liga MX on Sat 17 Oct, 01:00 at Estadio Victoria. Our prediction for Necaxa vs Atlas is Atlas to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

Necaxa form

Necaxa have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Atlas form

Atlas have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Necaxa won 0, Atlas won 2 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Necaxa 0, Atlas 1.

Our call

We expect Necaxa to score about 1.3 goals and Atlas about 1.5. That points to Atlas to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31. Our bold bet is Atlas to win and Over 2.5 at 3.77.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

NecaxaAtlas
Games played2020
Wins47
Draws56
Losses117
Goals scored2222
Goals conceded3426
Scored per game1.11.1
Conceded per game1.71.3
Home record4W 2D 5L1W 5D 4L
Away record0W 3D 6L6W 1D 3L
Clean sheets15%35%
Both teams scored75%50%
Over 2.5 goals65%35%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals78%1.27
Over 2.5 goals54%1.84
Over 3.5 goals32%3.12
Both teams to score58%1.72
Necaxa or Draw58%1.72
Atlas or Draw68%1.47
Necaxa to win and Over 2.520%4.97
Atlas to win and Over 2.527%3.73
Necaxa clean sheet22%4.64
Atlas clean sheet27%3.74

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.4%
1-29.0%
0-18.1%
2-17.7%
1-06.9%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Necaxa vs Atlas?

Our prediction for Necaxa vs Atlas is Atlas to win, with a 42% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.31.

What is the score prediction for Necaxa vs Atlas?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Necaxa to score 1.3 goals and Atlas 1.5.

Will both teams score in Necaxa vs Atlas?

Both teams to score has a 58% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Necaxa last 20 games and 10 of Atlas last 20.

How are Necaxa playing?

Necaxa have 4 wins, 5 draws and 11 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 34 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read L, L, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Atlas playing?

Atlas have 7 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses in their last 20 games, with 22 goals scored and 26 conceded. Away from home they have 6 wins, 1 draw and 3 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, L, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Necaxa and Atlas last met?

It ended Necaxa 0, Atlas 1. In the last 2 meetings Necaxa won 0 and Atlas won 2.

What is the best bet for Necaxa vs Atlas?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.31, with a 77% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Necaxa against Atlas. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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