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Predictions › Mexico › Necaxa vs FC Juárez
Liga MXSat 24 Oct, 01:00 Mexico time

Necaxa vs FC Juárez prediction

Estadio Victoria

NecaxaHome
1.77 : 1.25
expected goals
FC JuárezAway
49%Necaxa
25%Draw
26%Juárez
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.26

Quick answer

Our prediction for Necaxa vs FC Juárez is Necaxa to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

Prediction
Necaxa to win
Chance
49%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Necaxa 1.8, FC Juárez 1.3
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.26
Both teams to score
60%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
79% chanceFair price 1.262 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Necaxa to win and Over 2.5
32% chanceFair price 3.131 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Necaxa 49%, the draw 25% and FC Juárez 26%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Necaxa took 2 points from their last 5 games and FC Juárez took 4 from 5. FC Juárez come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Necaxa won 4 of their last 11 games at home. FC Juárez won 0 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Necaxa score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.8. FC Juárez score 1.1 and let in 2.2. Over 2.5 goals landed in 13 of Necaxa games and 13 of FC Juárez games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 2 meetings, Necaxa won 1 and FC Juárez won 0 with 1 draw. The last one ended FC Juárez 1, Necaxa 2.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 79% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Necaxarecent form-4%
  • Juárezrecent form-3%
  • Necaxarest between games-2%
Necaxa form D L L L DJuárez form D L W L LHome edge in this league 31% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Necaxa vs FC Juárez: Necaxa are favourites

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Necaxa host FC Juárez in the Liga MX on Sat 24 Oct, 01:00 at Estadio Victoria. Our prediction for Necaxa vs FC Juárez is Necaxa to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

Necaxa form

Necaxa have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, D, newest first.

FC Juárez form

FC Juárez have 3 wins, 4 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 44 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 2 times in our records. Necaxa won 1, FC Juárez won 0 and 1 game ended level. Last time out it finished FC Juárez 1, Necaxa 2.

Our call

We expect Necaxa to score about 1.8 goals and FC Juárez about 1.3. That points to Necaxa to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26. Our bold bet is Necaxa to win and Over 2.5 at 3.13.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

NecaxaJuárez
Games played2020
Wins43
Draws64
Losses1013
Goals scored2421
Goals conceded3544
Scored per game1.21.1
Conceded per game1.82.2
Home record4W 2D 5L3W 2D 5L
Away record0W 4D 5L0W 2D 8L
Clean sheets15%5%
Both teams scored75%75%
Over 2.5 goals65%65%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals81%1.23
Over 2.5 goals58%1.72
Over 3.5 goals36%2.80
Both teams to score60%1.67
Necaxa or Draw74%1.36
FC Juárez or Draw51%1.97
Necaxa to win and Over 2.533%2.99
FC Juárez to win and Over 2.517%5.87
Necaxa clean sheet29%3.48
FC Juárez clean sheet17%5.89

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-111.4%
2-19.6%
1-08.0%
2-07.7%
1-26.7%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Necaxa vs FC Juárez?

Our prediction for Necaxa vs FC Juárez is Necaxa to win, with a 49% chance. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.26.

What is the score prediction for Necaxa vs FC Juárez?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 2-1 and 1-0. We expect Necaxa to score 1.8 goals and FC Juárez 1.3.

Will both teams score in Necaxa vs FC Juárez?

Both teams to score has a 60% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Necaxa last 20 games and 15 of FC Juárez last 20.

How are Necaxa playing?

Necaxa have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 35 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 2 draws and 5 losses from 11. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, L, D, newest first.

How are FC Juárez playing?

FC Juárez have 3 wins, 4 draws and 13 losses in their last 20 games, with 21 goals scored and 44 conceded. Away from home they have 0 wins, 2 draws and 8 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read D, L, W, L, L, newest first.

What happened when Necaxa and FC Juárez last met?

It ended FC Juárez 1, Necaxa 2. In the last 2 meetings Necaxa won 1 and FC Juárez won 0.

What is the best bet for Necaxa vs FC Juárez?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.26, with a 79% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Necaxa against Juárez. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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