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Predictions › Mexico › Necaxa vs Tijuana
Liga MXSat 7 Nov, 01:00 Mexico time

Necaxa vs Tijuana prediction

Estadio Victoria

NecaxaHome
1.33 : 1.44
expected goals
TijuanaAway
34%Necaxa
27%Draw
39%Tijuana
Eagle safe pickOver 1.5 goals
1.29

Quick answer

Our prediction for Necaxa vs Tijuana is Tijuana to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Prediction
Tijuana to win
Chance
39%
Most likely score
1-1
Expected goals
Necaxa 1.3, Tijuana 1.4
Best bet
Over 1.5 goals at 1.29
Both teams to score
57%

Note: This is our view from the numbers, not a sure thing. One goal, one injury or one red card can change any game.

The eagle's three picks

✓

Eagle safe pick

Over 1.5 goals
78% chanceFair price 1.292 units
⚡

Eagle bold pick

Correct score 1-1
13% chanceFair price 7.881 unit

Note: Safe is the bet most likely to win. Value is where the price pays more than it should. Bold pays more but loses more often. A unit is your normal stake.

Why we think this

  1. 1
    What our numbers say

    The model gives Necaxa 34%, the draw 27% and Tijuana 39%. There are no bookmaker prices yet, so this is our model on its own.

  2. 2
    Recent form

    Necaxa took 2 points from their last 5 games and Tijuana took 6 from 5. Tijuana come in with the better run.

  3. 3
    Home and away

    Necaxa won 4 of their last 12 games at home. Tijuana won 2 of their last 10 on the road.

  4. 4
    Goals

    Necaxa score 1.2 goals a game and let in 1.8. Tijuana score 1.6 and let in 1.1. Over 2.5 goals landed in 12 of Necaxa games and 11 of Tijuana games in that run.

  5. 5
    Head to head

    In the last 1 meeting, Necaxa won 1 and Tijuana won 0 with 0 draws. The last one ended Necaxa 3, Tijuana 0.

  6. 6
    The safest bet

    Over 1.5 goals has a 78% chance, the highest of the bets worth taking here.

Note: Every reason here comes from real results and real prices. We do not guess and we do not copy tipsters.

What moved our number

Eagle 2.0 starts from results and prices, then reads four more things. Here is every change it made on this game.
  • Necaxarecent form-4%
  • Tijuanarecent form-1%
  • Tijuanarest between games-2%
Necaxa form D L L D LTijuana form D D D D LHome edge in this league 29% more goals at homeCorrected using our own settled bets

Note: Each reading is capped on purpose. Together they can never move an expected goal number by more than 12 percent. See the full method.

Match preview

Necaxa vs Tijuana: Tijuana shade it

By the EagleEyeOdds desk

The big picture

Necaxa host Tijuana in the Liga MX on Sat 7 Nov, 01:00 at Estadio Victoria. Our prediction for Necaxa vs Tijuana is Tijuana to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

Necaxa form

Necaxa have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 36 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, L, newest first.

Tijuana form

Tijuana have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, D, L, newest first.

Head to head

These two have met 1 time in our records. Necaxa won 1, Tijuana won 0 and 0 games ended level. Last time out it finished Necaxa 3, Tijuana 0.

Our call

We expect Necaxa to score about 1.3 goals and Tijuana about 1.4. That points to Tijuana to win, with 1-1 the most likely score. Our safest bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29. Our bold bet is Correct score 1-1 at 7.88.

Note: This preview is written from our data and updates as new results and prices come in.

Team records

Last 20 games in all competitions.

NecaxaTijuana
Games played2020
Wins49
Draws67
Losses104
Goals scored2431
Goals conceded3623
Scored per game1.21.6
Conceded per game1.81.1
Home record4W 3D 5L7W 1D 2L
Away record0W 3D 5L2W 6D 2L
Clean sheets10%35%
Both teams scored75%55%
Over 2.5 goals60%55%

Note: W is a win, D a draw and L a loss. A team with more games at home or away can look better or worse than it is.

Goals and other markets

MarketChanceFair price
Over 1.5 goals77%1.30
Over 2.5 goals53%1.90
Over 3.5 goals30%3.30
Both teams to score57%1.76
Necaxa or Draw61%1.64
Tijuana or Draw66%1.52
Necaxa to win and Over 2.521%4.77
Tijuana to win and Over 2.524%4.10
Necaxa clean sheet24%4.24
Tijuana clean sheet26%3.79

Note: Fair price is what a bet should pay if our chance is right. If your bookmaker offers more than this, the bet has value.

Most likely scores

1-112.7%
1-28.6%
0-18.3%
2-18.0%
1-07.6%

Note: Even the most likely score only lands about one time in eight. Keep correct score bets small.

Questions people ask

Who will win Necaxa vs Tijuana?

Our prediction for Necaxa vs Tijuana is Tijuana to win, with a 39% chance, but it is a close call. The most likely score is 1-1. Our best bet is Over 1.5 goals at 1.29.

What is the score prediction for Necaxa vs Tijuana?

1-1 is the most likely score, followed by 1-2 and 0-1. We expect Necaxa to score 1.3 goals and Tijuana 1.4.

Will both teams score in Necaxa vs Tijuana?

Both teams to score has a 57% chance. Both sides scored in 15 of Necaxa last 20 games and 11 of Tijuana last 20.

How are Necaxa playing?

Necaxa have 4 wins, 6 draws and 10 losses in their last 20 games, with 24 goals scored and 36 conceded. At home they have 4 wins, 3 draws and 5 losses from 12. Their last 5 results read D, L, L, D, L, newest first.

How are Tijuana playing?

Tijuana have 9 wins, 7 draws and 4 losses in their last 20 games, with 31 goals scored and 23 conceded. Away from home they have 2 wins, 6 draws and 2 losses from 10. Their last 5 results read W, D, D, D, L, newest first.

What happened when Necaxa and Tijuana last met?

It ended Necaxa 3, Tijuana 0. In the last 1 meeting Necaxa won 1 and Tijuana won 0.

What is the best bet for Necaxa vs Tijuana?

Over 1.5 goals at 1.29, with a 78% chance.

Note: Answers change as prices move. We check every game again every 30 minutes.

Important, please read before you bet

  • These are opinions, not results. Everything on this page is a probability worked out by a computer model from past games and current prices. No one can know what will happen in Necaxa against Tijuana. A pick at 70 percent still loses about 3 times in every 10.
  • We do not promise profit. Our public record shows wins and losses together, and losing runs happen to every method. Treat any money you stake as money you may never see again.
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